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Business News/ News / India/  India needs an all-hands effort to check spread of Covid-19, warn scientists
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India needs an all-hands effort to check spread of Covid-19, warn scientists

Concerns rise about magnitude of confirmed virus cases, use of public transport creating conditions conducive for community transmission
  • Authorities in Mumbai have begun stamping the hands of people who need to be self-quarantined
  • People waiting at a train station wear protective masks as a precaution against coronavirus outbreak in Mumbai (Photo: AP)Premium
    People waiting at a train station wear protective masks as a precaution against coronavirus outbreak in Mumbai (Photo: AP)

    New Delhi: As confirmed cases of Covid-19 swelled to 138 on Tuesday, scientists warned that they could not rule out an underestimation of the magnitude of the viral infection.

    Scientists argued that it is very difficult to say conclusively if those who have tested positive for Covid-19 are the only ones infected. Further, they said the disease might even be present in many who have not travelled to Covid-19 hotspots.

    With reports of Indians leaving quarantine centres to evade treatment, with some even taking public transport—with serious implications—there is a likelihood that the real numbers are much higher than 138.

    “It is being increasingly recognized that some spread of infection may be possible by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic," said Lalit Kant, scientist and former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

    “This adds to the complexity. It is a herculean task to get a line-listing and trace all such people who may have come in contact (with an infected person) during this period," said Kant.

    It is likely that undetected patients are spreading the infection and creating conditions favourable for community transmission, he added.

    Dr Samit Bhattacharyya, associate professor, department of mathematics at Shiv Nadar University, said “As of now 138 cases have been identified in India which may not indicate the actual number of Covid-19 infected individuals. It may be larger than this number as it is an asymptomatic infection."

    India is in stage 2 of the pandemic, characterized by local transmission among families, for instance. To ascertain if it has reached stage 3 of broader community transmission, ICMR has initiated surveillance for cases of influenza-like illness among people who have no history of travel to an outbreak country or being in contact with an infected individual.

    “This exercise would provide very useful information. If community transmission is detected it would mean that we have missed getting all infected individuals or contacts in the net," said Kant.

    “The numbers in India are definitely underreported because we are only testing those individuals who have a history of travel in high-risk countries like China, South Korea, France, Iran, etc or those who are close contacts of positive cases," said Harjit Bhatti, former chief of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Resident Doctors’ Association.

    “In that, too, first they have to be quarantined and if they show symptoms then they will undergo testing. Coronavirus has varied profile and can causes mild or no symptoms in up to 80% cases. Though they are asymptomatic they still act as a carrier and can spread the disease. So it’s expected that we are very underreported because of extremely restricted testing patterns," he said.

    Citing the findings of some international studies, Bhatti said that the real number of cases in India might be more than 3,000.

    The World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday acknowledged that across the globe there has been a rapid escalation in social distancing measures, like closing schools and cancelling sporting events and other gatherings but testing has to be scaled up.

    “We have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO. “We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test."

    The apex global health agency has expressed concern about the impact the virus could have among populations with high HIV prevalence, or among malnourished children as it moves to low-income countries. It also raised a concern over the likelihood of infection from cured people.

    “People infected with Covid-19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least two weeks after symptoms disappear," said Tedros.

    “The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate," Tedros said, adding that to stop the pandemic, authorities have to know who is infected.

    Health minister Harsh Vardhan told the Rajya Sabha that scientists at ICMR are adopting the best possible ways to find out the transmission trends in India.

    Lav Aggarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry, said the government has been transparent about the numbers. “For communicable diseases, we cannot hide the data because this will be doing more harm than good. The public should know the current situation of the virus spread," he said.

    Meanwhile, Manoj V. Murhekar, scientist G and director of ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology in Chennai for community transmission surveillance, said that ICMR has been doing random testing and the preliminary data indicates that 500 samples have been tested and all of them are negative.

    Leroy Leo contributed to this story

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    Published: 18 Mar 2020, 12:12 AM IST
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