India's population to stabilise near 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080 amid improved education, female literacy, family planning

India's population is expected to stabilise near 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080 with current replacement level at 1.9, according to Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran.

Speaking to PTI, Chandran noted that India is undergoing a “rapid demographic transition”, with birth rate set to drop sharply over the past 20 years. He added, “In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline.” TFR is the total fertility rate.

According to Chandran, all estimates show India's maximum population will remain below 2 billion and expected to peak around 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080 when growth stabilises.

Are Indian's having less children?

According to the official, the fall in fertility rate is “primarily” due to increased development and education levels.

“Increased female literacy has directly shaped decisions around marriage and childbearing, leading to smaller families. Greater use of contraceptives and wider access to birth control have further accelerated the decline,” he said.

“Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” Chandran added.

He further added that many are opting to marry later in life and choosing to grow economic opportunities, especially women are increasingly pursuing careers, which also has significantly influence on reproductive choices.

‘Development is inversely proportional to birth rates’

Chandran noted that increased development has a direct impact on fertility. “Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Illiterate groups still have fertility levels above three, but among the educated, TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8,” he said.

He cited Kerala as an example, noting that the achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989 and now has a TFR of around 1.5. Also seeing a sharp fall in fertility rate is West Bengal. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the West Bengal's TFR has dropped to 1.3, down from 1.7 in 2013 — a decline of nearly 18% and well below the replacement level of 2.1.

“West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in the country, on par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, while recording the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally,” he added.

Declining birth rate vs improved healthcare pose challenges

As per Chandran, despite falling birth rates, improved healthcare has ensured that life expectancy continues to rise. “More people are living beyond 60, and this brings new challenges of elderly care, especially as younger people migrate for work,” he said.

However, increased life spans prop up different challenges, such as requirement for elderly day-care facilities.

Founded in 1971, IASP comprises around 1,100 demographers and population scientists. The organisation regularly deliberates on issues with support from bodies including UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India, as per the report.

(With inputs from PTI)