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PremiumThe government on Tuesday released India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the October-December 2022 quarter (Q3FY23). The GDP growth rate expanded slower than forecast in the three months through December, as a gloomy global outlook and rising borrowing costs dampened activity. The Q3 GDP numbers will play a key role in setting markets sentiment.
For Q3FY23, experts predicted a moderation in the growth momentum as the economic activity in the quarter remained distinctly uneven. Although, among key sectors, agriculture is likely to see reasonable improvement.
The RBI had projected the real GDP growth for 2022-23 at 6.8 per cent, and for the third quarter at 4.4 per cent.
Ritika Chhabra, Quant Macro Strategist at Prabhudas Lilladher PMS, said, “The Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% is on expected lines. The loss in growth momentum is due to fading away of favorable base effect, slowdown in pent up demand due to high inflation & interest rates and contraction in manufacturing sectors. Some of the high frequency indicators were already pointing at muted growth for the quarter vs Q2, hence, lower GDP growth rate in Q3 didn't come as a surprise."
On Q3 GDP data, Nish Bhatt, Founder and CEO at Millwood Kane International said, "The Q3FY23 GDP at 4.4% is very much on the expected lines. The growth rate has slowed down due to higher inflation and lower consumption. The data looks optically lower but the fact it is coming on a revised higher base than last year is encouraging. Low private consumption has been primarily responsible for the lower GDP print coupled with lower government spending and a contraction in manufacturing. Construction, Realty & Finance, trade, and hotel components provided support to the data."
There might be more pain in store as interest rates go up further and consumer activity in the country's key export market – the US – loses steam. While India’s growth will likely moderate to 6.1% next year, it will be the fastest among major economies in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund.
S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP Securities, said: "India Q3 GDP rate of 4.4% is in line with RBI estimates and is below consensus estimates primarily due to an upward revision in the base. GVA during the quarter was up 20bps compared to the GDP. During the quarter private final consumption was not in line with expectations. Gross Fixed Capital Formation at over 8% however is encouraging."
The NSO has revised the GDP growth for 2021-22 to 9.1 per cent against the earlier estimate of 8.7 per cent.
The government, in its second advance estimate of national accounts, pegged India's growth at 7 per cent for 2022-23. Read full report here
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹159.71 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹ 149.26 lakh crore. The growth in GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 percent as compared to that of 9.1 percent in 2021-22.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in FY23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹272.04 lakh crore as compared to ₹234.71 lakh crore in FY22, showing a growth rate of 15.9 per cent, the ministry said.
The Indian economy has grown by 4.4% in the October to December quarter, down from a growth of 6.3% in the second quarter, amid a high inflation and weak demand.
The combined Index of Eight Core Industries jumped 7.8 per cent (provisional) in January 2023 as compared to the Index of January 2022.
The Asian Development Bank has projected the Indian economy to expand 7 per cent while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pegged the growth at 6.8 per cent in 2022-23.
- The second advance estimate of GDP for FY23 will be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation today.
- The government will also release the December quarter data today.
- It will also release the revised estimate of economic growth for 2021-22.
April-January fiscal deficit came in at ₹11.91 lakh crore, or 67.8% of revised annual estimates, government data showed today.
Shares registered their longest losing streak in nearly four years today, amid persistent rate hike fears and sustained foreign selling, ahead of the domestic GDP data for the December quarter.
The Nifty 50 index fell 0.51% to 17,303.95, while the S&P BSE Sensex closed 0.55% lower to 58,962.12. Both benchmarks declined for the eighth consecutive session, with the Nifty 50 falling 4.1% over the period.
Prakhar Pandey, Founder and CEO, Moolaah, said, "The growth estimates might range bw 4.5-5.1% depending on a series of factors. With a considerable slowdown in Exports due to a weak global demand and a larger slowdown in consumer demand due to a constant rise in interest rates, hitting the capability of consumers to service higher interest rates or borrow in the medium to short term. Further with not a big gap bw the 1 year and 10 year Gsec rates, the inward investment into India has also plateaud. Amongst the three sunrise sectors, only the agricultural sector is looking promising, as service and manufacturing sector must see some sort of definite hit due to a fall in the pent up demand created earlier in line to the pandemic woes moving out."
RBI had projected the real GDP growth for 2022-23 at 6.8 per cent, with the third quarter and fourth quarter growth at 4.4 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. It had trimmed the growth projection for 2022-23 for the third time in December last year.
The Chief India economist at HSBC Holdingss Plc, Pranjul Bhandari said that India could continue to face challenges with rising interest rates and fall in consumer activity in the US, India's key export market.
“Exports have slowed in the December quarter as the global economy hits the brakes," Pranjul Bhandari told Reuters. “There were pockets of resilience," he said, citing investment, improving rural economy, and goods outperforming services.
India is also poised to expand at the world’s fastest pace in the fiscal year starting April, according to the IMF.
Expecting a moderate growth rate of GDP in Q3FY23, Jyoti Prakash Gadia, Managing Director of Resurgent India, finds the lower demand growth and rising interest rates the world over as the main reason of GDP slump.
He also said that there is an impact of the base effect due to a comparatively improved position in Q3 of the previous year after the COVID-19 tapering.
“The manufacturing sector is expected to perform below par in Q3 due to a lack of adequate demand and incipient recessionary trends in developed countries. The agriculture sector may however show improved numbers with kharif output outpacing the previous trend and may show an above-average rate of around 4%. The services sector growth is also likely to be muted compared to previous quarters on account of uncertainties and due to a pause in fresh investments. Overall the lower GDP Q3 numbers are on the expected line," said Jyoti Prakash.
India's GDP grew by 6.3% yoy in the second quarter of current financial year. The government stated that India's GVA grew by 5.6% yoy in Q2.
As the government is set to release the Q4 GDP data on Tuesday, Indian shares swung between gains and losses on Tuesday. The gains in auto and media stocks were mostly offset by a slide in metals,reported Reuters.
The Nifty 50 index fell 0.13% to 17,370.40, while the S&P BSE Sensex edged 0.10% lower to 59,225.81 as of 11:02 a.m. IST. Both benchmarks traded between 0.3% gains and 0.3% losses during the session.
Ahead of the release of Q3 GDP data, experts believe that there will a moderate growth in the quarter under review due to uneven economic activity in the quarter. Although, among key sectors, agriculture is likely to see reasonable improvement.
Waning consumption, which accounts for 60% of GDP, risks hurting growth in Asia’s third-largest economy, as borrowing costs rise. The Reserve Bank of India has increased interest rates by 250 basis points since May to tame inflation and signaled it isn’t ready to pause just yet, amid growing dissent within the rate-setting panel.
Indian shares marked a low start on Tuesday, as the gains in auto and media stocks were mostly offset by a slide in metals, ahead of the domestic GDP data for the December quarter, reported Reuters. The Nifty 50 index rose 0.19% to 17,426.30, while the S&P BSE Sensex edged 0.20% higher to 59,410.50 as of 9:50 a.m. IST.
Due to high interest rates and inflation, economists are predicting growth of 6.9% for the fiscal year from April 2022 to March 2023, reported Bloomberg. The estimates are below the government’s prior 7% estimate and slightly higher than the International Monetary Fund’s 6.8% projection.
Due to mix trend in crop production in the previous quarter, there are chances of low agri-GVA growth. ICRA has estimated agri-GVA growth to be at 4.0% for Q3 FY2023. The estimate is based on the mixed trend in the production of kharif crops indicated in the 2nd Advance Estimates for FY2023.
The industrial GVA growth is expected to have reverted to a YoY growth of ~1.0% in Q3 FY 2023, said ICRA. It received a mild 0.8% contraction in Q2 FY23. The industry is aided by an improvement in all the four sub-sectors, namely manufacturing (to -3.0% from -4.3%), mining and quarrying (to +5.0% from -2.8%), electricity, gas, water supply and other utilities (to +7.0% from +5.6%) and construction (to +7.0% from +6.6%).
The credit rating agency made clear that the previous quarter will see a moderation due to base-effect. However, services sector would outpace the rise in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Service sector would induce a base-effect led moderation to +7.4% from 9.3% and agriculture, forestry and fishing will lead to a moderation of +4.0% in Q3 FY 2023.
Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) has projected a year-on-year growth of GDP in Q3 of current financial year to be set at 5.1%. However, the GDP growth over the pre-Covid levels is expected to improve further to 11.6% in Q3 FY2023 relative to the 7.6% seen in the previous quarter, boosted by continued recovery in the services sector, it said.
According to experts, the sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate seen in consecutive quarters and in Q3 data is the result of fading of pandemic-induced base effect. The steep fall in economic growth due to pandemic has been normalised and its no more contributing towards higher growth figures.
India's GDP growth will be affected by weak global demand and monetary tightening by the RBI. The GDP data can show further slow down of economy amid pent-up demand ease and patchy private investment, reported Reuters.
Ahead of the release of Q3 GDP data for FY 2022-23, experts suggest on a Mint poll that India's economic growth is likely to be slowed down to 4.7% in the December quarter.
The government will release India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the October-December 2022 quarter (Q3FY23) on February 28.
