The Central government's NSO office on Wednesday released India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the January-March quarter (Q4FY2023). In the quarter, India's economy sees significant growth and merrier-than-estimates. In Q4FY23, GDP growth is at 6.1% compared to 4.4% growth rate witnessed in Q3. Street had expected a growth of 5.5% during the 4th quarter of FY23.
Overall, the growth in FY23 fiscal is better-than-expected to 7.2%. However, the FY23 growth has slowed down from 9.5% growth in FY22.
Catch all the latest updates on India's GDP at LIVEMINT's blog:
India's economy outlook for FY24
Economists and experts gave thumbs up to the expansion in GDP growth to 6.1% in Q4FY23. Overall, FY23 economy's growth was at 7.2% which is also impressive. India's CEA believes that the economy will see solid performance in the current fiscal FY24.
What will be India's economic growth in FY24?
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA projects growth of real GDP in FY2024 at 6.0%, with a downside risk of up to 50 bps in the event that an El Nino affects the monsoon rains. At the same time, frontloaded capex by the GoI and the States and a rapid execution of infra projects could provide an upside to our GDP estimates for the fiscal. We foresee the nominal GDP growth at 10.0% for FY2024.
Further, Nayar said, "Inflation is expected to moderate in FY2024 relative to FY2023 which is a positive for household budgets and consumption. However, the rise in home loan EMIs and its impact on the budgets of urban households and their consumption demand, contraction in exports and their impact on employment, and the impact of a potential El Nino on crops, food prices and farm incomes remains to be seen."
What does latest GDP growth indicate for Indian stock markets?
Currently, both Sensex and Nifty 50 are racing towards their lifetime high. On Wednesday, Sensex settled the day by falling 346.89 points or 0.55% to 62,622.24. Nifty 50 dipped by 99.45 points or 0.53% to close at 18,534.40.
In May month, both Sensex and Nifty 50 have climbed over 2% each.
Post the GDP numbers, Gaurav Dua, Head - Capital Market Strategy, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said, "Nifty has broken out of the 2,000 points range of 16,000-18,000 level and the market seems to be set to scale new peak in H2 of 2023. Interestingly, the broader markets are also doing well after a corrective phase of 18-20 months post peaking out in October 2021. We remain constructive on equity markets given our conviction on the beginning of a multi-year upcycle in the Indian economy ahead."
Central government finances outlook for FY24
Indian government achieved the fiscal deficit target of 6.4% of GDP in FY23. Upbeat gross tax collections and thrust on capex have been the major highlights of the Centre’s fiscal performance during the year.
What to expect in FY24?
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, Care Ratings said, in FY24, "we expect the growth in gross tax revenue to witness some moderation on account of lower nominal GDP growth. On the non-tax revenue front, the RBI’s transfer of ₹87,416 crore is positive compared with the transfer of ₹30,307 crore in the last fiscal. Dividend pay-out from the RBI alone has exceeded the budgeted amount of ₹48,000 crore from RBI, nationalised banks, and financial institutions collectively. This is expected to support the government finances in the current fiscal amid slow disinvestment receipts."
How private consumption will perform ahead?
Sujan Hajra - Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers:
Going forward, we expect India's growth to remain around 6% for the financial year ending March 2024. Despite the likely slow down during the current financial year, we expect at least modest pickup in private consumption demand. The compulsions of fiscal consolidation can depress final consumption demand by government. Barring better than expected acceleration in private capital expenditure, we would also expect deceleration in the growth of fixed investment
Economic growth solid ahead
Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO - India, South-East Asia, Middle East & Africa, CBRE said that the GDP numbers indicate that the Indian economy has emerged as an outlier after maintaining the growth rate at a higher level as compared to global economies following the breakout of the pandemic.
Further, Magazine added, the country’s growth story continues to be aided by strong domestic demand coupled with strengthening activity in the services sector. Outlook for Investment and consumer momentum too is expected to underpin solid growth prospects. Emerging economic trends indicate that India continues to be on its expansion trajectory."
What were the surprise elements in GDP Q4 FY23 growth?
According to Umesh Kumar Mehta, CIO, SAMCO MF, The Q4 GDP numbers are a pleasant surprise at 6.1%, thereby depicting a strong revival in the Indian economy contrary to expectations and macro challenges. The momentum has picked up pace and there is a broad-based recovery from manufacturing, mining to construction and farm sectors."
Mehta added, "The surprise element was the farm and agriculture sectors whilst manufacturing growth was more or less inline. There is an overall revival in economic activity due to the investments from the Government being extremely strong but the consumption side is yet to catch up which is a downer. This capex led mode is surely keeping our economy afloat compared to other major global economies. We expect good upside from the markets and some revisions from the RBI in its upcoming policy meetings."
FIIs end May 2023 with a bang, DIIs are net sellers
Amidst GDP data, FIIs bought ₹3,405.90 crore worth of Indian equities on Wednesday, on the other hand, DIIs sold ₹2,528.52 crore.
With that, FIIs stay as net buyers in May with an inflow of ₹27,856.48 crore --- which is the highest monthly buying of 2023 as of now. DIIs, however, are net sellers with an outflow of ₹3,306.35 crore in May.
What does latest GDP growth mean for real estate sector ahead?
Vivek Rathi-Director Research, Knight Frank India:
A 7.2% economic growth in FY23, indicates resilience in India’s economy despite multiple global headwinds during the year arising from economic and geo-political uncertainties.
Domestic investments as well has indicated some strength, as seen in 9.6% growth in GCF. Growth in investments is crucial for a sustenance of long-term economic growth.
So far, the real estate sector has remained strong despite multiple headwinds arising from aggressive interest rate hikes and consumer inflation. This indicates the strong consumer preferences towards home ownership. Since real estate is a derived demand, a sustenance in the economic growth is beneficial to the sector.
Going forward, government initiatives such high allocation to infrastructure spending, and policies to promote domestic manufacturing such as PLIs should be supportive of India’s long term economic growth.
GDP growth beats estimates in FY23 in higher interest rates scenario
Prithviraj Srinivas, Chief Economist, Axis Capital:
"March 2023 quarter GDP growth surprised positively at 6.1% YoY vs our 5.4% estimate. In sequential, seasonally adjusted annualized terms, the economy picked up to 10%, helped by most segments on the supply side. Meanwhile, investments and net exports played a key role on the demand side of GDP. This growth has come in spite of higher interest rates and weaker real income growth. Both parameters are likely to see improvement in the quarters ahead which should help sustain the robust pace of activity."
Key highlights of GDP data
- Growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.
- Q4 GDP estimated at ₹43.62 lakh crore, as against ₹41.12 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.1 percent.
- India's manufacturing sector saw a sharp slowdown in growth to 1.3% in FY23 versus 11.1% in the previous fiscal.
- GVA in agriculture, forestry and fishing saw a growth of 4% in FY23, rising from 3.5% in FY22.
- Financial, real estate and professional services recorded a growth of 7.1% versus 4.7% in FY22.
- Construction sector also slowed down to 10% growth in FY23 versus 14.8% in FY22.
- India's per capital national income (net) rises to ₹98,374 crore in FY23, as against ₹92,583 crore in FY22.
GDP Q4 numbers a big surpise!
Ritika Chhabra- Quant Macro Strategist – Prabhudas Lilladher PMS:
“The Q4 growth number is a big surprise. In particular, on production side, agriculture growth at 5.5% is much better than expected, despite the unseasonal rains we saw in Jan-March period. The services growth has come on expected lines, supported by robust growth in trade, hotels and financial services. On expenditure side, the major contributor to the growth is capital formation (at 8.9%) driven by investment expenditure by the government. However, a mere 2.8% growth in private consumption expenditure indicates waning private sector demand, which is a concern."
How markets react to GDP growth of 7.2% in FY23
Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo:
According to recent data, India's GDP for the January to March quarter has exceeded expectations, growing at a rate of 6.1 per cent compared to the estimated growth of just above 5 percent. This positive development is certainly good news for the Indian economy. However, there are ongoing challenges for the fiscal year 2024, as the global economy is slowing down, leading to lower exports for India over the past three months.
Read more here: Market reactions to GDP data which slows to 7.2% in FY23
India's per capita income rises in FY23
Data from the NSO revealed that India's per capital national income (net) rises to ₹98,374 crore in FY23, as against ₹92,583 crore in FY22.
Overall, in the mentioned fiscal year, the net national income stood at more than ₹136.04 lakh crore compared to nearly ₹126.71 lakh crore witnessed in FY22.
Government final consumption in FY23
The government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) inched higher to ₹15,77,306 crore in FY23 as against ₹15,75,281 crore in FY22.
Private final consumption outperformed the government final consumption.
Private sector consumption rises in FY23
As per the data, private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) was among the major indicators to drive GDP. PFCE came in at ₹93,58,694 crore in FY23 versus ₹87,03,541 crore in FY22 and ₹78,24,496 crore in FY21.
Sectors slowdown in FY24
India's manufacturing sector saw a sharp slowdown in growth to 1.3% in FY23 versus 11.1% in the previous fiscal.
Mining and quarrying sector posted a growth of 4.6% in FY23 versus 7.1% in FY22. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services saw a moderation to 9% in FY23 as against 9.9% in FY22.
Construction sector also slowed down to 10% growth in FY23 versus 14.8% in FY22. Lastly, public administration, defence and other sevices sector registered a growth of 7.2% in FY23, moderating from 9.7% in FY22.
Manufacturing growth at single-digit
Under GVA, manufacturing sector recorded a sharp slowdown in growth to 1.3% in FY23, as against double-digit growth of 11.1% in FY22.
Surprisingly, in value terms, the provisional estimates of manufacturing sector was at ₹26,17,059 crore in FY23 as against ₹25,82,473 (1st RE) crore in FY22.
Top performing sectors in GVA
GVA in agriculture, forestry and fishing saw a growth of 4% in FY23, rising from 3.5% in FY22. In rupee terms, the provisional estimates stood at ₹22,34, 269 crore in FY23, versus ₹21,49122 crore in FY22.
Further, GVA in trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, posted a growth of 14% in FY23 as against 13.8% in FY22.
Meanwhile, financial, real estate and professional services recorded a growth of 7.1% versus 4.7% in FY22.
India's GVA at 7% in FY23
The gross value added (GVA) of India at basic prices saw a growth of 7% in FY23, moderating from 8.8% in FY22.
India's nominal GDP growth at 16.1% in FY23
The country's nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹272.41 lakh crore, as against ₹234.71 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth rate of 16.1 percent.
India's infrastructure output slows to 6-month in April
The growth in eight core infrastructure industries moderated to 3.5 per cent in April on an annual basis after hitting a five-month low of 3.6 per cent in March. The growth also eased from 9.5 per cent growth a year earlier. The production of fertilisers, steel, cement and coal increased in April 2023 over the corresponding month of last year, according to government data.
The growth rate in April 2023 is the lowest since October 2022 when the sectors expanded by 0.7 per cent.
Coal production growth declined to 9 per cent in April this year, according to data released by Ministry of Commerce & Industry on Wednesday. Fertiliser production soared by 23.5 per cent, steel by 12.1 per cent and cement output by 11.6 per cent in April, the data showed.
FY23 GDP growth beats estimates
MoSPI's data on Wednesday showed that real GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹160.06 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore.
The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2% as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.
RBI had predicted real GDP growth rate at 6.8% for FY23.
GDP growth better-than-expected in Q4
As per government data, GDP at constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹43.62 lakh crore, as against ₹41.12 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.1%.
Experts had predicted a growth rate of 5.5% in Q4FY23.
In previous quarter, the GDP moderated to 4.4%.
Also, GDP at current prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹71.82 lakh crore, as against ₹65.05 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 10.4 percent.
10-year G-sec yield may range in 7-7.2%
ICRA expects the fertiliser budgetary allocation for FY2024 to remain adequate, at the current juncture. The Government has recently approved a subsidy of Rs. 380 billion towards P&K fertilisers for the FY2024 kharif season. In addition to this, the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) rates for the kharif season for key nutrients N, P, K and S have been revised downwards, in line with the fall in international fertiliser and key raw material prices.
The rating agency further said, while fiscal concerns appear limited and the MPC seems unlikely to raise policy rates further in the immediate term, higher state government borrowings in the coming months could keep the 10-year G-sec yield in a range of 7.0-7.2% in the remainder of H1 FY2024.
India achieves FY23 fiscal deficit target
Indian government were able to meet their fiscal deficit target in FY23. Fiscal deficit came in at ₹17.33 lakh crore in FY23, as against revised estimates of ₹17.55 lakh crore.
Aditi Nayar, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, ICRA said, "The Government of India was able to restrict its FY2023 fiscal deficit at Rs. 17.3 trillion, a shade below the the FY2023 RE, with higher than estimated revenue receipts and a small undershooting in revenue expenditure, offsetting the disinvestment miss and a healthier than expected capex."
India's fiscal deficit nearly doubles in April 2023
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA said:
In April 2023, the Government of India's fiscal deficit nearly doubled to Rs. 1.4 trillion or 7.5% of the FY2024 BE, from Rs. 0.7 trillion in the first month of FY2023, with net tax revenues and non-tax revenues reporting a sharp contraction of 13.9% and 8.2%, respectively, amidst a 15.2% rise in revenue expenditure, and a 0.6% fall in capex that may have been hampered by unseasonal rains.
Higher than budgeted dividend surplus transfer of Rs. 874.2 billion from the RBI is likely to provide some cushion to meet any undershooting in other revenues streams or overshooting in expenses, relative to respective budget estimates.
Why Indian markets rally is hindered?
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
As indicated by multiple economic data points, the Indian economy is presently experiencing a robust recovery, leading to an upward trend in domestic equity markets. However, the rally is being hindered at times due to negative signals from global peers, as observed today. Concerns about a recession and potential interest rate hikes in western markets are impacting the domestic market but it is nevertheless maintaining the outperformance.
Banking and financial stocks worst hit ahead of GDP
On Wednesday, Bank Nifty plunged by 308.20 points or 0.69% to finish at 44,128.15. Also, Nifty Financial Services dropped nearly a percent.
Stocks like Axis Bank, SBI, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC, and Bajaj Finserv were among top underperformers on benchmarks.
Sensex, Nifty 50 closing price on May 31st
Sensex settled the day by falling 346.89 points or 0.55% to 62,622.24. Nifty 50 dipped by 99.45 points or 0.53% to close at 18,534.40.
Markets end in red ahead of GDP data
Indian markets witnessed selling pressure on Wednesday as investors await the country's GDP data which is scheduled to be released later in the day.
Midcap and smallcap stocks outperformed benchmarks. BSE Midcap and SmallCap were up over 145 points and 205 points.
Banking, metal and oil & gas stocks were top underperformers that dragged Sensex and Nifty 50.
What will drive GDP data?
Economic trends and available data indicate that India remains one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world at a time when Western countries are grappling with concerns of a recession. However, the country's growth is expected to be in the lower range because of global factors.
Brokerage firm Nirmal Bang peg GDP growth for Q4FY23 at 5.2 per cent, marginally higher than its earlier estimate of 4.8 per cent. GVA growth is expected at 5.3 per cent.
The brokerage expects FY23 GDP at 7.2 per cent and its GVA estimate stood at 6.9 per cent.
What poll suggests?
According to a Mint poll, 18 economists expect the Indian economy to rise in the January-March quarter, but growth will remain uneven in different sectors.
Q4 GDP data to be announced after market hours in evening
As per Mitul Shah - Head of Research at Reliance Securities, India is due to report its 4QFY23 GDP data today evening. The IMD has reiterated its previous forecast of a normal monsoon (96% of LPA) this year. This augurs well for the agriculture and allied sectors and should help boost kharif output. It will boost farm income and will be a tailwind for overall rural consumption benefitting sectors such as automobiles, fertilizers, agrochemicals and FMCG. It will also help tame inflation and boost hopes of a dovish monetary policy in 2HFY24.
'Agriculture sector to grow by 3.5% in FY 2023': Govt estimates
The government of India in February this year projected that the agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.5% in FY 2023. The total Kharif food grain production in the country is estimated at 149.9 million tonnes higher than the average Kharif food grain production of the previous five years, the Central government said.
Nominal GDP to grow at 15.4 % IN FY2023: Govt estimates
According to the Fiscal Policy statement in February 2023, the Nominal GDP has been projected to grow at 15.4 % year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in FY2022-23 as against 19.5% in 2021-22. The real GDP is projected to grow by 7% (Y-o-Y) relative to 8.7% in 2021-22.
India poised to grow 6.2% in FY 2024: Morgan Stanley report
On 18 May, Morgan Stanley said that India is poised to grow at 6.2% in the current financial year 2023-24 with improving macro stability.
"We see healthy balance sheets sustaining the robust trends in domestic demand. Improving macro stability means the monetary policy will not have to turn restrictive, allowing the economic expansion to continue," the report said.
‘This India is different from what it was in 2013’: Morgan Stanley on India's growth rate
US investment banking firm Morgan Stanley has praised the growth in India's economy. In its latest report, Morgan Stanley said that in just a short span of 10 years, India has gained positions in the world order with significant positive consequences for the macro and market outlook.
"This India is different from what it was in 2013," the report said.
Morgan Stanley's Research had taken these 10 big changes namely, supply-side policy reforms, formalisation of the economy, Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, digitalizing social transfers, Insolvency, and Bankruptcy Code, flexible inflation targeting, focus on FDI, India's 401(k) moment, government support for corporate profits and MNC sentiment at a multiyear high.
Here's what RBI Governor said on India's GDP growth and inflation
In the latest media statement, the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das estimated GDP growth to be 7% for FY2023, and added "won't be more surprised if GDP growth for FY23 comes above 7%".
Das said India should be able to record GDP growth close to 6.5% in FY24.
India GDP data in FY2023-Highlights
Q3 GDP growth data FY2023: The Indian economy declined to 4.4% in the October to December quarter as compared to the preceding quarter.
Q2 GDP data FY2023: India's economy showed a growth of 6.3% between July-September 2022.
Q1 GDP data FY2023: The GDP of India from April -June Quarter 1 in fiscal year 2023 rose 13.5%.
Ahead of India's GDP data, Sensex dips 262 points in morning trade amid weak global cues
The BSE-Sensex on Wednesday lost 262 points to 62,706.71 and NSE Nifty 50 dropped 69 points to 18,565.35 in morning trade ahead of India's GDP data. Investors would be monitoring the annual and quarterly data of India's gross domestic product which will be released today.
In sectoral indices, Bank Nifty sank 261.35 points or 0.59% to 44,175, Nifty Metal plunged 1.13%, Nifty PSU Bank fell 1% while Nifty Pharma rose 0.46%.
India's growth momentum to continue in FY 2024: RBI
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday said that India's growth momentum is likely to continue in the current fiscal year (2023-24).
"Amidst strong global headwinds, the Indian economy is expected to have recorded a growth of 7% in real GDP in 2022-23," it said.
However, RBI's annual report also flagged slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility as possible downside risks to growth.
India's unemployment rate dips to 6.8% in Jan-March 2-23: Govt data
India's unemployment data was high during the January-March quarter. The joblessness rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.8% during January-March 2023 from 8.2% a year ago, the National Sample Survey Survey (NSSO) showed.
India's GDP likely to grow by 5% between Jan-March: Mint poll
Due to robust demand in India's service sector, the Indian economy may grow 5% in the March quarter, improving from 4.4% between October-December (Q3), according to Mint poll.
Indian economy may have gained pace in March quarter
According to the Reuters poll, India's economy grew by 5% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier. High-frequency indicators showed that a rise in urban incomes had boosted sales of expensive cars, Apple mobile phones, and air travel. However, the manufacturing and agricultural sectors suffered flat growth in real wages due to high inflation.
India's Q4 GDP to be out today
The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the January-March 2023(Q4FY23) on 31 May.
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