BackIndia shrugs off Day One chaos as flights chart their route to normalcy
Airports, airlines manage resumption of air travel with greater efficiency on Day 2, but the fortunes of the country’s carriers will hinge on the economy
PremiumIndian skies continued to open up steadily on Tuesday as the country sought to shake off the chaos of resumption, with more flights planned for the coming days offering a measure of respite for people stranded by the prolonged lockdown.
But future demand for air travel and the fortunes of domestic airlines, said analysts, will hinge on the course of the country’s economy, hobbled last year by a downturn and now by a coronavirus-induced grinding down. Economists predict that India’s GDP will contract for the first time in four decades, and business travel has all but vanished as companies cut costs.
Although a lack of preparedness and the reluctance of some states to allow their airports to open fully threw the Centre’s plans into disarray on Monday, airports and airlines managed the resumption of air travel with greater efficiency on Tuesday.
“Our airports have handled 325 departures and 283 arrivals with 41,673 passengers till 5pm on 26 May, the second day after recommencement of domestic flights. Final report for the day will be prepared after details come in at midnight," said civil aviation minister Hardeep Puri in a tweet.
Airlines operated 832 flights, carrying 58,318 passengers on Monday, nearly double the 418 that looked possible at the start of the day.
“We should see scaling up of operations after Kolkata airport opens up on 28 May. Flights between Kolkata and North East will start," said a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The West Bengal government on Tuesday issued guidelines for air travel saying asymptomatic passengers will be permitted to leave the airport with the advice that they will self-monitor their health for 14 days.
The country’s largest airline, IndiGo, was expected to operate more than 200 flights on Tuesday, while SpiceJet was scheduled to operate about 100. The Wadia Group-controlled GoAir, which has got its summer schedule approved, will resume services on 1 June.
Puri tweeted that airports are abuzz and passengers back in the air. “Operations have started in Andhra Pradesh from today (Tuesday). These numbers are all set to soar higher," the minister said in a tweet. The civil aviation ministry on Tuesday issued guidelines for non-scheduled operators to serve, including helicopter services.
However, the airline industry’s return to normalcy will depend on sustainable demand for travel, as leisure and business travel is likely to remain subdued.
“The initial travel may be by those who are desperate to return home. Once that demand is met, we have to wait and see if the momentum is sustained," said the first government official cited above.
Sustaining the momentum of flight operations and fresh bookings will be key to the financial health of airlines as many people would have used credits from their cancelled tickets for the travel they are undertaking now.
“The initial demand at the time of reopening air travel would be driven by passengers who are stuck at different places. Going forward, urgent travel requirements would remain the driver of demand, rather than leisure or business travel," said Kinjal Shah, vice-president at rating agency ICRA Ltd.
The wider economy remains a worry: investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast a 5% contraction in GDP in FY21.
The Reserve Bank of India said in its monetary policy statement last week that economic activity had been severely impacted by the two-month lockdown, enforced since 25 March. India’s industrial output had shrunk by close to 17% in March 2020, official data showed.
One note of hope comes from expected growth in farm output and predictions of a normal monsoon this year.
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