India's sugar exports have fallen below 5% of total production as policy curbs prioritize domestic price stability amid lower output and higher diversion of cane juice towards ethanol production.
“While exports used to account for a significant share of overall sales during the sugar seasons 2019-20 to 2022-23, peaking at 30% of production during 2021-22. The share has dropped materially to less than 5% over the last two years, post the export restrictions from December 2023,” said Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence.
Industry executives view tighter export curbs and periodic restrictions as policy measures intended to prevent shortages and stabilize retail prices, amid vulnerability in sugarcane output due to erratic weather in key producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka.
To be sure, India is one of the world’s top sugar consumers, with consumption projected at around 28 million tonnes in 2025-26, and is the second-largest producer of sugar globally. With roughly a 15% share in global sugar consumption and about 20% of global production, Indian sugar trends have a significant impact on global markets.
A tightly managed exporter
Sugar exports stood at 7 mt against output of 31 mt in SS21, before rising sharply to 11 mt against record output of 35.9 mt in SS22. However, exports slipped to 6.3 mt against output of 33 mt in SS23 and nearly came to a halt in SS24 at just 0.1 mt against production of 32 mt.
A modest recovery was seen in SS25 at 0.9mt, but SS26 (provisional) exports are estimated at only 0.7mt, according to data from the ministry of consumer affairs, food and public distribution ministry.
The Centre had earlier permitted 1.59mt of exports for SS26, of which around 0.7mt had been shipped by mid-May. With the ban now in effect from 13 May, no further commercial exports are expected.
According to Sharma, looking ahead, concerns over a potential El Niño impact on the next sugar season have reinforced the government’s precautionary stance, as lower cane sowing could further affect sugar production and domestic availability in 2026-27.
Sugar output for SS26, which was expected to be around 30.5mt, is now estimated at 28-29mt, as recovery rates in the later months of crushing declined significantly.
Late rains during the maturity phase (around October 2025 in Maharashtra and Karnataka) led to cane flowering, adversely affecting sucrose recovery more than expected at the beginning of the season.
Sugar season runs from October to September.
"Exports were permitted by the government in November 2025 based on the then prevailing production estimates and an encouraging outlook for the sugar season. However, as the season progressed, sugar production in certain key states, particularly Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, was impacted due to lower-than-anticipated yields coupled with weather-related abnormalities, resulting in a moderation of overall actual production,” said Deepak Ballani, director general, Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association.
Price impact
On the other hand, retail sugar prices in India have risen gradually and steadily over the last five years.
Data show retail sugar prices remained largely stable at ₹39-42 per kilogramme in 2020-21 and ₹39-41 per kg in 2021–22. Prices began firming up in 2022-23 to ₹40-42 per kg before rising further to ₹42-45 per kg in 2023-24. In 2024-25, retail prices have moved higher to ₹44-47 per kg, reflecting tighter domestic supply and higher production costs.