India sets up panel to monitor dumping amid US-China trade war, to be headed by commerce secretary

New Delhi: As the trade war between the US and China intensifies, India is on high alert to prevent any surge in diverted goods entering the country, senior government officials said.

A committee has been established for the purpose. It will be headed by commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal and comprise officials from the Ministry of Commerce, Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC), and Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).

It will closely monitor any influx of agricultural products from the US and merchandise from China. These goods could be routed through third countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Nepal.

The commerce secretary will review the committee's report every week and, based on its findings, necessary measures may be implemented to check the import of goods from China, said the first among the four officials mentioned above.

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Barthwal said, "However, without naming any specific country, we have identified certain countries for more intense monitoring. We are aware of emerging trends, particularly in light of global tariff developments. Imports are being closely tracked through the designated cell, and based on the findings, necessary actions will be taken.”

“We are also in constant touch with our stakeholders,” he added. “Commerce ministry officials are coordinating with various ministries and export promotion councils, and based on their feedback and inputs, appropriate remedial measures will be put in place,” he said.

Merchandise dumping risk

As per a presentation made by the ministry in the presence of the commerce secretary, a recent assessment highlighted the risk of merchandise dumping into India due to reciprocal tariffs amid global trade tensions.

Rising costs in the US may prompt exporters from countries like China, Vietnam and Indonesia—all facing trade deficits with the US—to divert goods to India, potentially triggering import surges, as per the document.

Additionally, Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US goods could further increase the inflow of US agricultural products into India, the presentation showed.

In the case of the Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) for import surge monitoring, apart from representation from the Department of Commerce, DGFT, CBIC, and DPIIT, representatives from other ministries are consulted as and when required.

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“The commerce ministry has also set up a Global Tariff and Trade Helpdesk on 11 April. The helpdesk enables exporters and importers to report issues across a range of categories, including trade barriers, dumping, export-import clearances, logistics bottlenecks, and compliance matters,” said Santosh Sarangi, the DGFT.

On whether higher tariffs on competing countries could benefit India, the commerce secretary said, "Our advantage depends on both our tariffs and those on competing nations. If we have lower tariffs, it creates opportunities. However, if our competitors get better tariffs, it’s a concern. With the ongoing BTA (bilaterlal trade agreemen) talks with the U.S., we anticipate more opportunities than challenges ahead."

"The next round of talks with the US will begin this week, followed by another round of face-to-face discussions in the second week of May,” said another official.

"While the leaders of both nations have committed to finalizing the BTA by fall (September-October) 2025, this does not mean the process will extend that long. It could be concluded earlier, as both countries are equally focused on advancing the deal," this official said.

Talks progressing well

The BTA talks with the US are progressing well, and both partner countries have signed the terms of reference for the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement, this official said.

Both the countries had agreed in February to begin work on this first phase, aiming to wrap it up by the end of the year, as part of their goal to boost bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.

“India stands to gain significantly from the U.S. decision to impose a 120% duty on Chinese e-commerce shipments under $800 starting 2 May. With over 100,000 online sellers and $5 billion in exports, India is well-positioned to fill the gap left by China, especially in categories like handicrafts, fashion, and home goods," said Ajay Srivastava, co-founder, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a think tank.

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This committee draws significance as several export promotion councils have urged the government to monitor the inflow of imports from China and other countries, which are hurting domestic production.

A case in point is the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA), which has raised concerns over a sharp rise in duty-free edible oil imports from Nepal under the SAFTA agreement, urging the government to act.

Another is the Association of Indian Medical Device Industry (AIMED), which has sought safeguard duties on 12 key medical devices, warning that rising imports are hurting domestic manufacturers.

“Imports have surged, especially from China, Germany, Singapore, the USA, and the Netherlands. China alone accounts for 33.47% of this increase,” AIMED said in a statement.