New Delhi: India's demand for Russian crude remains resilient despite Red Sea threats with no known diversions seen so far, said a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights on Thursday.
Noting that the appetite of Indian refineries for Russian crude oil has slowed in recent months compared with the first half of 2023, the report said that Russia still maintains its position as India's top supplier, accounting for over 35% of India's total crude imports.
“Despite a series of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, India's crude imports from Russia remain unaffected so far. According to CAS (commodities at sea) data, as of 27 December, the Red Sea route remains the preferred option for traders supplying Russian crude to Indian refiners, with Russia holding a substantial volume of oil at sea, with a minimum of 43.7 million barrels destined for India,” it said.
It said 19.2 million of these barrels are positioned in proximity to the Indian subcontinent, covering the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean East, and Southeast Asia. These can be utilized by refiners and traders to sustain their operations in the event of any disruption.
Elevated maintenance activities during October and November resulted in an overall reduction in crude imports, it said. India's refinery crude oil distillation unit (CDU) maintenance peaked in October at around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd). Notably, there was an increase in the imports of crude oil residue from Russia to 170,000 bpd in October, which is expected to reach an all-time high of around 200,000 bpd in December, it said.
The report also said that in the event of an escalation in Red Sea attacks, no decrease in Russian volume is anticipated, with projections indicating that India's crude imports from Russia could constitute around 35%-45% of the country's overall imports, provided that competitive pricing is maintained. However, there is a possibility that US and Latin American crude suppliers may opt for the Cape of Good Hope shipping route.
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