Is 4th Covid wave coming? Will it have serious impact on India? Top health experts answer
The Centre is keeping a constant vigil. It has asked states and UTs to ensure an adequate number of samples are submitted to the INSACOG network for detection in emerging Covid variants
India has seen a significant decline in Covid-19 cases, though the world is seeing another possible wave, this time led by Omicron subvariant BA.2. The subvariant is more infectious and is spreading fast throughout the world. Amid all these worries, people are worried that Covid infections could rise in India.
India has increased the vaccination programme, now for all above 60 years and has introduced inoculation for 12-14 years olds too. Companies have started reopening their establishments and people are trying to move back to normal life. Experts have tried to tone down fears around the possible 4th Covid wave in India, thanks to record vaccination coverage -- over 188 crore -- and immunity due to natural Covid infections. They also call for relaxing Covid-induced curbs including the mask mandate.
The Centre is keeping a constant vigil. It has asked states and UTs to ensure an adequate number of samples are submitted to the INSACOG network for detection in emerging Covid variants. Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya also chaired a high-level meeting on March 16, which called for aggressive genome sequencing, more surveillance and overall vigil on the COVID-19 situation.
The lowest daily rise in two years:-
India's COVID-19 tally increased to 4,30,06,080 on Sunday with 1,761 fresh infections which is the lowest since April 2020, while the active cases declined further to 26,240. The death toll due to the viral disease climbed to 5,16,479 with 127 fresh fatalities, the data updated at 8 am stated.
Here's what experts are saying on the possible 4th Covid wave in India:-
1) Dr Sanjay Rai, senior epidemiologist at AIIMS: SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus and mutations are bound to occur. Already more than 1,000 mutations have occurred, although there are only five variants of concern. India experienced a very devastating second wave last year, which was very unfortunate, but currently, this is our main strength as natural infection provides a better and longer duration of protection. Also, there is high vaccination coverage. Hence, the severe impact of any future wave is unlikely. It is also time that the Indian government may consider relaxing the mask mandate and senior citizens and those at a higher risk of contracting the infection should continue wearing masks as a precautionary measure.
2) Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and public health specialist: The possibility of a fresh surge in India is low, even with a new variant. If we analyse data on seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and evidence on the spread of Omicron, it is logical to conclude that the COVID-19 epidemic in India is over. For India, the possibility of a fresh surge for many months and even with a new variant is low. We know that antibody level declines over a period of time but hybrid immunity continues to provide protection. Moreover, at this stage of the pandemic, infections and new COVID-19 cases are not a concern. The outcome of those infections should be the criteria to assess the situation. It is also a time that as a society, we prepare for living with Covid. It is also the time that the Indian government reviews and revises the face mask-related regulation. The time has come that the mask requirement for the majority of the population can be done away with. It can be done in a graded manner.
3) Dr Jugal Kishore, head of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital: Due to the high prevalence of seropositivity, which indicates that more than 80-90 per cent of the population has been infected by coronavirus, measures like wearing masks can be done away with. Due to high natural infection, people are unlikely to have severe symptoms if a new wave of coronavirus comes.
Also read: Omicron BA.2 can be avoided with these vaccines but…: Study reveals both good news and bad
4) Dr N K Arora, chairman of the COVID-19 working group of NTAGI: Given the high vaccination coverage and the widespread of the disease, the possibility of India being hit by a severe wave is less likely. But that should not lead to the lowering of the guard as there is always the risk of new variants emerging. The current understanding is that most of these outbreaks are due to Omicron and its sublineages.
With PTI inputs
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Business NewsNewsIndiaIs 4th Covid wave coming? Will it have serious impact on India? Top health experts answer
First Published:20 Mar 2022, 03:27 PM IST
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