BackKarnataka Assembly elections: Opinion polls reveal possible setback for BJP? Key findings
According to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress party is expected to win the majority of seats and form the government in Karnataka, with the BJP suffering significant losses and the Janata Dal (Secular) performing poorly.
PremiumThree pre-election surveys or opinion polls have forecasted that the Congress party will regain power in the upcoming Karnataka assembly election scheduled for May 10, while a poll conducted by Zee News-Matrize has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will become the largest party in the election.
According to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress party is expected to win the majority of seats and form the government in Karnataka, with the BJP suffering significant losses and the Janata Dal (Secular) performing poorly.
Key takeaways from the Karnataka elections
1. The ABP News-CVoter opinion poll suggests that in the Karnataka assembly election, the Congress party could win a range of 110 to 122 out of the total 224 seats, while the BJP may secure 73 to 85 seats. The JD(S) is projected to win between 21 to 29 seats.
Seat Shares:
BJP: 73 to 85 seats
Congress: 110 to 122 seats
JD(S): 21 to 29 seats
2. According to a survey, the BJP may be trailing the Congress by five percentage points in terms of the proportion of votes received. The Congress may receive 40% of the votes, while the BJP may receive 35%, and the JD(S) may receive 17% of the votes.
Seats share (total seats – 224)
BJP: 74 to 86 seats
Congress:107 to 119 seats
JD(S): 23 to 35 seats
Others: 0 to 5 seats
Vote share
BJP - 35%
Congress - 40%
JD(S) - 17%
Others – 8%
3. India Today- My Axis has predicted that the ruling BJP is anticipated to lose the Karnataka assembly election. The opinion poll predicts that the BJP may only secure 74-86 seats, which is a decrease of 24 seats from the number they won in 2018.
Seats share
Congress: 107-119
BJP: 74-86
JD(S): 23-35
Vote share
Congress: 40%
BJP: 35%
JD(S): 17%
4. The opinion poll reveals that 42% of respondents prefer Congress leader Siddaramaiah as the top choice for the position of chief minister, while 31% favour Basavraj Bommai from the BJP as the next best option.
5. The Zee News-Matrize opinion poll, which was published on Monday, has predicted that in the upcoming assembly elections, the BJP will emerge as the party with the largest number of seats. The Congress and JD(S) are expected to follow the BJP in terms of seat numbers.
Seats share
BJP: 103-115
Congress: 79-91
JD (S): 26-36
Others: 1-3
Vote share
BJP: 42%
Congress: 40%
JD(S): 15%
Others: 3%
6. As per the Zee News-Matrize opinion poll, Prime Minister Narendra Modi could play a significant role in the outcome of the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, whereas Rahul Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' is unlikely to bring substantial benefits to the Congress party.
7. According to Zee News, their opinion poll for the Karnataka assembly elections had the largest sample size compared to other polls conducted so far. The poll included 1.80 lakh males and 1.12 lakh females from both rural and urban areas, and was conducted on March 29 and 30.
8. Suvarna News 24x7 and Jan Ki Baat, both Kannada news channels, have conducted their final pre-poll survey, which suggests that the BJP is likely to win the most seats in the May 10 elections, becoming the single-largest party. However, the survey indicates that the Congress party may receive a slightly higher proportion of votes compared to the BJP.
9. Eedina, a Kannada outlet, conducted a pre-poll survey that predicts a clear and comfortable majority for the Congress party in the upcoming Karnataka assembly elections. The survey indicates that the Congress may win 32-140 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 57-65 seats and a vote share of 33%.
10. BL Santhosh, a member of the BJP, dismissed the survey results and accused Yogendra Yadav of fabricating the survey. Santosh tweeted, "It's really astonishing that he (Yogendra Yadav) finds time amidst his padayatras and agitations to cook up surveys to please his masters...!!!".
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