Karnataka elections 2023: What happens in case there is a hung Assembly?

With mere hours left for the counting of votes in Karnataka, both the BJP and Congress have repeatedly assured they will win a clear majority. But with most exit polls predicting a hung Assembly, the JD(S) remains poised to play kingmaker in the state. An atmosphere of uncertainity however continues to prevail, with leaders from all three parties eschewing alliances. 

What is a hung Assembly?

Most exit polls gave an edge to the Congress earlier this week while indicating the possibility of a hung Assembly in the state. Put more simply, this would mean that no party or allied group will reach the halfway mark in the 224 seat Assembly.

The Congress or BJP (and their allies) would needs to win 113 seats to reach the majority mark and stake claim to form the government.

What will happen in Karnataka if there is a hung Assembly?

Any political party wishing to form the government has to prove that it holds a clear majority. In case of a hung Assembly, parties in Karnataka are likely to stich together a new alliance in order to form a joint government. Despite initial assertions to the contrary, the JD(S) has already indicated its willingness to enter into a post-poll alliance with either the Congress or the ruling BJP. 

Seven out of 10 exit polls have predicted a hung assembly. Two predicted an outright win for the Congress while one forecast a BJP victory. And while politicians and news reports have both repeatedly reminded that exit polls do not always get it right, the JD(S) appears somewhat likely to play kingmaker. 

What happened in 2018?

In the previous Assembly elections in 2018, the BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats, followed by Congress with 80 seats and JD(S) 37. There was also one independent member, while the BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) got one legislator each elected.

With no party getting a clear majority then, and as Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, B S Yediyurappa of the BJP, which was the single largest party, staked a claim and formed the government. However, the government was dissolved within three days ahead of a trust vote, as Yediyurappa was unable to muster the required numbers.

Subsequently, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister, but the wobbly dispensation collapsed in 14 months, as 17 legislators resigned and came out of the ruling coalition. They defected to the BJP and facilitated the party's return to power.