Scarce rains may cut pulse, oilseed yields

Kharif crops may be hit in the western parts of the country, where irrigation penetration is low, experts said, adding rabi crops may also suffer.

As per the latest forecast by IMD, the Southwest monsoon will be normal at 96% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/-5%. There is a 35% probability of monsoon being normal, 29% chance of it being below normal, 22% possibility of it being deficient, 11% chance of monsoon being above normal, and only 3% chance of it being excess.

At the same time, it also predicts El Nino conditions to form in July, and to be felt in the second half of the June-September Southwest monsoon season, that is in August and September.

The forecast of normal monsoon may bring relief to farmers as far as the sowing of kharif crops is concerned because sowing typically concludes by the first fortnight of July.

However, if there is deficiency in monsoon rains during the second half of the monsoon season that coincides with the flowering period for most key kharif crops, it may lead to lower yields, said Pushan Sharma, director – research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics.

“Water deficit in paddy during flowering and maturity stages would lead to spikelet sterility and reduce the grain weight which would eventually cause adverse impact on the yield of the crop."

Key paddy growing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana have good irrigation penetration supported by ample reservoir levels, which is expected to moderate the impact of lower rainfall on the paddy crop.

However, in the case of pulses and oilseeds, deficit rainfall during flowering stages leads to ‘flower abortion’. In cotton, water deficit during the reproductive phase leads to square drop and boll drop, eventually leading to lower yields, Sharma said.

Maharashtra and Gujarat that together make up 18-20% of area under kharif pulses, 36-38% under kharif oilseeds and 50% under cotton, have lower irrigation penetration which might impact yields in the western region.

As part of its drought management plan amid forecasts of El Nino compromising monsoon rains, the agriculture ministry through the ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agrticulture has formulated agricultural contingency plans in 650 districts for implementing interventions to sustain agricultural production in the eventuality of any extreme climatic event, an agriculture ministry spokesperson said.

“Agricultural gross value added growth is projected to be 3.5% in the year, which can come down to 2-2.5% in case of severe El Nino impacting monsoon winds," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.

If there is any shortfall in output, it will add to food inflation. Pulses inflation is currently at 5.3% and expected to rise from here on, Sabnavis added. Not only prices of pulses but also paddy, maize and oilseeds like groundnut have witnessed a jump in prices last year.

“If El Nino pans out as predicted, production of these crops will impact, and prices of these crops will remain elevated at the levels of previous year when these crops had been impacted due to heavy rainfall. However, at this stage we don’t see a significant rise in the already firm prices," Sharma said.

As part of the drought management plan amid forecasts of El Nino compromising monsoon rainfall, agriculture ministry through ICAR- Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) has formulated District Agricultural Contingency plans (DACPs) in 650 districts for implementing location specific interventions to sustain agriculture production in the eventuality of any extreme climatic events, an agriculture ministry spokesperson said in response to the query sent to the ministry.

In the case of soybean and cotton, the price hike was significant in 2021 Calendar year (January-December) but witnessed a minor correction in 2022 Calendar year. Prices of these crops are expected to decline further this year as global trends are not favourable for a spike.

Moderation in economic growth in European countries and the US has adversely impacted cotton demand which is likely to have a bearish impact on cotton prices on year. Similarly, duty free crude soybean oil imports have been allowed in India till 30 June this year, which is expected to increase the stock levels eventually putting downward pressure on prices of soybean as well as edible oil complex in the country.

As far as rabi crops are concerned, crops such as wheat, barley, mustard, and pulses like gram (chana) and lentils (masur) could be affected in regions where irrigation facilities are not proper, said Tirth K. Shah, executive director of GSP Crop Science Pvt Ltd.

Monsoon rainfall plays a crucial role in rabi sowing due to its impact on soil moisture. During the monsoon season, the rainfall not only directly provides moisture to the crops but also replenishes the groundwater and soil moisture levels. This moisture stored in the soil acts as a reservoir and supports the growth of rabi crops. Thus, insufficient rainfall during the monsoon season can result in reduced soil moisture, which can impact the sowing and growth of rabi crops, Shah added.

If the El Niño prediction comes true and affects the monsoon season, it can have implications for food prices and farmers. Farmers may face challenges such as lower incomes and increased production costs if their crops are affected by the lack of rainfall, according to Shah.

Farmers plant kharif crops after the first spell of monsoon ensuring adequate soil moisture in June, while rabi crops are cultivated from mid-November.

Agriculture plays a vital role in India’s economy. About 56% of the net cultivated area of the country is rain-fed accounting for 44% of food production. Thus, monsoon showers are crucial for agricultural operations and food security of the country. Southwest monsoon (June- September) rainfall contributes to about 73% of total rainfall in the country. Timely onset (June 4 with a margin error of +/- 3 days predicted this year by IMD), is crucial for cultivation of kharif crops.