Lok Sabha election 2024: NDA may not win 370-410 seats, but will improve 2019 tally, says Antique Broking

Lok Sabha election 2024: Antique Stock Broking believes the drop in voter turnout might have a minimal impact on BJP-held seats. The drop is mainly seen in seats where the party won with a high winning margin of over 20 per cent in 2019.

Nishant Kumar
Updated17 May 2024, 01:14 PM IST
Lok Sabha election 2024: The average voter turnout so far has been 67 per cent.
Lok Sabha election 2024: The average voter turnout so far has been 67 per cent.(ANI)

Lok Sabha election 2024: The BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) may not win 370-410 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election but will still surpass its 2019 tally of 353 seats, according to brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking.

Highlighting the debate on the prospects of the incumbent government's return amid a decline in voter turnout, Antique believes the incumbent party may improve its 2019 tally.

"The current debate is on the prospects of the incumbent government (polling is complete in nearly 70 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats) as there has been a decline in voter turnout (from 68.6 per cent in 2019 to 66.5 per cent in 2024, a decline in 252 seats out of 365). Based on our analysis of voter turnout data, we believe that the incumbent party may improve its 2019 tally but fall short of the opinion poll expectation of NDA winning 370-410 seats," said Antique.

Also Read: General Election and Market: Weak voter turnout making investors nervous, say experts

Four of the seven Lok Sabha election 2024 phases have been completed. The fifth phase is due on May 20. The sixth and seventh phases will be conducted on May 25 and June 1, respectively, and the results will be out on June 4.

The average voter turnout so far has been 67 per cent.

Also Read: Lok Sabha Election 2024: 5 key investment strategies amid market volatility

Antique said voter turnout could be revised upward due to the first-time optional postal ballot facility for voters over 85 and the disabled.

"Voter turnout has declined from 68.6 per cent in 2019 to 66.5 per cent in 2024 and a decline in 252 out of 365 seats polled so far excluding Assam. We believe that the final turnout data may increase further as the Election Commission has provided an optional postal ballot facility for the first time to voters above 85 years (8.2 million or 0.8 per cent of the total electorate) and with disabilities (8.8 million or 0.9 per cent of the electorate)," said Antique.

Also Read: Does rising India VIX mean a rising tide against BJP's win in Lok Sabha Election 2024?

There have been concerns that poor voter turnout, a trend observed in the 2004 elections, could result in the BJP's loss.

However, Antique said a repeat of the 2004 trend of poor voter turnout resulting in seat losses for the BJP is unwarranted as its voter base significantly expands, especially among lower-income households.

"Our recent interaction with a leading psephologist suggests that the linkage of lower voter turnout with a decline in BJP's winning seats worked in the pre-2014 era when its voter base was largely urban, middle to higher income households. However, the trend stands broken as a series of welfare schemes have resulted in significant broad-basing of its voter base (especially among lower-income households), evident from the significant rise in the winning voter share," said the brokerage firm.

Antique said the drop in voter turnout might have a minimal impact on BJP-held seats as the drop is mainly seen in seats where the party won with a very high winning margin of over 20 per cent in 2019.

On the other hand, Antique believes Congress might be impacted as lower voter turnout is higher in Congress-held seats, where the winning margin is less than 5 per cent in 2019.

"Empirical analysis on 2019 voter turnout change and 2014 winning margin suggests that voter turnout drops in seats won with a high winning margin (more than 20 per cent) have a lower chance of losing the seat as compared to those in seats won with a low winning margin (less than 5 per cent)," said Antique.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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First Published:17 May 2024, 01:14 PM IST
HomeNewsIndiaLok Sabha election 2024: NDA may not win 370-410 seats, but will improve 2019 tally, says Antique Broking

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