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People wearing masks walk with shopping bags inside a mall (REUTERS)
People wearing masks walk with shopping bags inside a mall (REUTERS)

Mint Covid Tracker: At current pace, India likely to cross 500,000 cases in 10 days

Deaths in Karnataka and Jammu and Kashmir have jumped over 40% in the past week even though active cases have dropped.

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 7.6 percent over the last two days to 332,424, latest data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is slightly slower than the pace in the preceding 48-hour period, when the number of cases went up by 7.8 percent.

The death toll has reached 9,520, after growing 7.2 percent over the last two days. This is also slower than the preceding 48 hours, when it had risen 9.7 percent.

The death count in India has nearly doubled in the last sixteen days. The number of infections is now twice what it was seventeen days ago, and given the rate of growth in this period, could hit the 400,000-mark in five days and the 500,000-mark in ten days.

The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

Despite a much slower case doubling rate than earlier in the outbreak, new infections and deaths are now rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. Among countries with death counts greater than 4,000, India has recorded the fastest increase in confirmed cases and in deaths over the past week. India now has more coronavirus cases than the United Kingdom, and more deaths than Iran.

At 3,950 deaths, Maharashtra has the highest toll in the country so far due to covid-19, followed by Gujarat (1,477), Delhi (1,327), West Bengal (475), and Madhya Pradesh (459). These five states have recorded 81 percent of all covid-related deaths in India so far. Deaths have surged the most in Haryana, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu in the last seven days.

The case fatality rates vary widely. At 6.3 percent, Gujarat has the worst fatality rate, followed by West Bengal, where 4.3 percent of those who tested positive for coronavirus have died. Madhya Pradesh is next with 4.2 percent. India’s case fatality rate is 2.9 percent. Among all states that have had deaths, the case fatality rates are the lowest in Tripura (0.1%), Ladakh (0.2%), and Assam (0.2%).

It is worth noting that data quality on cases and deaths vary across countries and regions because of factors such as differences in testing standards, and in protocols being followed for recording covid-related deaths.

Maharashtra has 53,030 patients still under treatment, the most in the country, followed by Delhi with 24,032 active cases and Tamil Nadu with 19,679. Gujarat is fourth on the list with 5,742 active cases and West Bengal fifth with 5,552 cases. Out of the 153,106 active cases in India as of Monday morning, the top five states together have 71 percent and the top ten states account for 82 percent. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

As many as 169,798 patients (51%) have now been discharged in India.

Among the ten states and union territories with most active cases, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, and Delhi have seen the highest percentage spike over the past seven days.

Among districts, Chennai, Mumbai, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad have seen the biggest jump in confirmed cases in the last two days. These five districts account for 46 percent of the new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Hyderabad in Telangana, Gurugram in Haryana, and Kancheepuram in Tamil Nadu.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW
Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA

So far, 357 districts have had deaths in the country. Mumbai (2,182 deaths) has reported the most deaths among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (1,185) in Gujarat, Pune (477) and Thane (441) in Maharashtra, and Chennai (348) in Tamil Nadu. These five districts now account for 58 percent of deaths in the country.

Kolkata (293) in West Bengal, Indore (169) in Madhya Pradesh, Aurangabad (136) in Maharashtra, Jaipur (131) in Rajasthan, and Jalgaon (131) in Maharashtra, are the other districts with the highest tolls. The top ten districts account for 69 percent of all the deaths nationally. District-wise data for Delhi are unavailable and hence not part of this list.

The number of coronavirus infections is likely to keep increasing in the coming days, as India’s testing numbers continue to grow. According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, over 5.8 million samples have been tested so far, including 115,519 in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 7.9 million, with over 433,000 deaths, and more than 3.7 million recoveries (48%).

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