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Home / News / India /  Mint Covid Tracker: At current pace, India likely to reach 1.5 million cases in 11 days

India’s total coronavirus case tally is set to hit the 1.5 million mark in 11 days’ time if it continues to rise at the same pace as since early July, a Mint analysis based on the latest health ministry data showed. During this period, cases have been growing at an average daily growth rate of 3.4%, the fastest among badly-hit countries.

Overall, India has 358,692 active cases—or patients still under treatment—as of Saturday morning, while 26,273 deaths have been attributed to the infection, the health ministry data showed. Active cases rose 22% in the last seven days, compared to 20% in the week-ago period (4 July to 11 July). The seven-day spike in deaths is 18%, compared to 19% in the preceding week. The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations since they minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

For over a month, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil. The toll is the eighth highest in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 10,000 deaths), India has recorded the biggest spike in deaths as well as active cases over the past week.

With cases rising, India’s health facilities and workforce continue to be under severe strain. The risk of further spread is higher now as the economy has started to reopen and most public movement is allowed.

Among states, Maharashtra (11,452), Delhi (3,571), Tamil Nadu (2,315), Gujarat (2,106) and Uttar Pradesh (1,084) have reported the most deaths. These states together account for 78% of all covid-related deaths in India so far. However, only two of them, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, have seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 12 states with the most active cases, Assam, Karnataka and Bihar have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths. In terms of active cases, Bihar, Karnataka and West Bengal led the surge in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

It is worth noting that data quality on cases and deaths vary across countries and regions because of factors such as differences in testing standards, and in protocols being followed for recording covid-related deaths.

Among states with more than 10,000 cases so far, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh have conducted the most tests per million population per day in the last two weeks, and West Bengal and Bihar the fewest, data collected by The Hindu showed.

Among the 15 districts with the highest number of new cases in the last 48 hours, the biggest percentage spikes were reported by Kamrup Metropolitan district in Assam (33%), East Godavari in Andhra Pradesh (23%) and Bengaluru in Karnataka (20%). In absolute numbers, Pune and Thane in Maharashtra and Bengaluru in Karnataka reported the biggest increase in cases during this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows.

So far, at least 499 out of over 700 districts in India have had at least one covid-related death. Mumbai (5,585 deaths) has reported the most, followed by Thane (1,952), Ahmedabad (1,537), Chennai (1,377), and Pune (1,310). Bengaluru in Karnataka, Kolkata in West Bengal, and Solapur, Jalgaon, and Aurangabad in Maharashtra are the other districts with more than 350 deaths. This list does not include Delhi, where the government does not provide district-wise data. State-level data shows Delhi (3,571 deaths) has the second-worst toll after Mumbai.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW
Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA

The number of coronavirus infections is likely to keep increasing in the coming days, with India now consistently testing over 300,000 samples per day. According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, nearly 13.4 million samples have been tested as of Friday, compared to 11.3 million samples a week ago.

India has reported 1,038,716 coronavirus cases in all since the beginning of the outbreak in late January. Out of these, 63%, or 653,750 had been discharged by Saturday, as compared to 53% a month ago. India’s case fatality rate—2.5 deaths per 100 infections—is lower than the global average of 4.2% at the moment.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 14 million, including over 600,000 deaths and more than 7.8 million recoveries (56%).

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