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Business News/ News / India/  Mint Covid Tracker: At current trajectory, India’s case count set to reach 100,000 in five days

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose nearly 10.6 percent over the past two days to 74,281, data from the morning update of the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is lower than the rate of increase in the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 12.6 percent to 67,152.

The number of new cases was over 3,500 for the third straight day. After tapering last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has picked up this month, with new infections and deaths rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries.

India’s case count has now roughly doubled in the last eleven days. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise compared to the trend in early-April but have picked up pace over the past couple of weeks. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of Wednesday morning was 2,415, roughly double what it was eleven days ago.

At the rate of compounded daily growth this month so far, the number of cases could rise to 100,000 by next Monday, a day after the end of the current phase of the lockdown. The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

At 18,381, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

The number of active cases in the second worst-hit state, Tamil Nadu is 6,523. The next state on the list, Gujarat, has 5,120 active cases, followed by 5,041 in Delhi and 1,901 in Madhya Pradesh. The top five states together account for 78 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 47,480 as of today morning. The numbers are yet to peak and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days as testing gets ramped up across states.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW

Over the past seven days, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Maharashtra have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 77 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. These three states account for 50 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days. However, Uttar Pradesh, along with Andhra Pradesh, is also one of only two states in the top ten where the active case count has reduced in this period. The seven-day increase in Madhya Pradesh was just 1 percent.

Among top ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in West Bengal (9.1%), Gujarat (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (5.6%). India’s case fatality rate continues to hover around 3.2%. Among all states, the case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%).

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Chennai, Pune, Ahmedabad, and Thane districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 54 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kancheepuram and Thiruvallur in Tamil Nadu.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW
Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA

So far, 543 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (14,899 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (6,353) in Gujarat. Chennai (4,888) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,929) in Maharashtra, and Thane (2,592) in Maharashtra are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 48 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Indore (2,016) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,267) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (1,068) in West Bengal, Surat (944) in Gujarat, and Jodhpur (936) in Rajasthan are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 57 percent of all the confirmed cases nationally. District-wise data for Delhi are unavailable and hence not part of this list.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 4.2 million even as some badly hit countries begin to relax lockdown measures after over a month.

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Updated: 13 May 2020, 11:11 AM IST
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