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Mint Covid Tracker: Despite slowing trajectory, India's corona case count could reach 30,000 in a week

A deserted view of Rajpath as government-imposed nationwide lockdown to take preventive measures against the spread of the Coronavirus, in New Delhi on Sunday. (ANI Photo)Premium
A deserted view of Rajpath as government-imposed nationwide lockdown to take preventive measures against the spread of the Coronavirus, in New Delhi on Sunday. (ANI Photo)

Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Delhi have seen the highest spike in cases, accounting for two-thirds of the new infections over the past two days

The number of reported covid-19 cases in India rose by 16 percent over the past two days to 16,116, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This the same growth rate as recorded in the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 16 percent to 13,835.

Although India’s covid-19 trajectory has tapered slightly, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Singapore, which had a much flatter curve than most other countries has seen a recent spike in a fresh wave of infections that has steepened its curve a bit. Compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries including India have been flatter so far.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eight days ago. This is a slower rate compared to a few days ago, when cases were doubling every four days. At the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 30,000 in the next six days. This trajectory needs to slow down further if India is to avoid getting its hospitals overwhelmed in the next few months. India’s death toll as of last evening was 519, double what it was eight days ago.

At 3,075, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Sunday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Delhi has the second most number of active cases (1,778), closely followed by Gujarat (1,452), which has eclipsed Madhya Pradesh as the third-most affected state. At 1,210 active cases, Madhya Pradesh has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Rajasthan (1,157). The top five states together account for 65 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 91 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 13,295 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW
Source: State portals
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Source: State portals

Over the past two days, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Delhi have seen the highest spike in cases. These three states account for 68 percent of all the new active cases in this period.

The number of active cases have risen from 909 to 1,452 in Gujarat, from 2,711 to 3,075 in Maharashtra, and from 1,551 to 1,778 in Delhi in this period.

Source: MohFW
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Source: MohFW

The top ten districts now account for 45 percent of confirmed cases in the country, data compiled by howindialives.com shows. And the top 50 districts account for roughly 73 percent of the cases.

So far, 415 districts have confirmed cases. Among these districts, Mumbai (2,790 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, followed by Ahmedabad (1,101) in Gujarat, Indore (891) in Madhya Pradesh, Pune (637) in Maharashtra and Jaipur (530) in Rajasthan. Hyderabad (438) in Telangana, New Delhi (419), South Delhi (320), Thane (338) in Maharashtra and Chennai (290) in Tamil Nadu are the other top hotspots in the country.

Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA

Most of India’s hotspots are urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest ().

More than 2.4 million people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as several parts of the world, including India, continue to be under lockdown to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes covid-19.


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