BackMint Covid Tracker: India’s coronavirus curve still steeper than Asian peers even as trajectory dips slightly
So far this week, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana have seen the highest spurt in covid-19 cases
PremiumThe number of reported covid-19 cases in India rose 23 percent over the past two days to 5274, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slower increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 39 percent to 4281.
So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 47 percent (between Sunday evening and Wednesday evening). This is a slower increase compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases had risen by 72 percent.
India’s trajectory has been steeper than most Asian peers such as Singapore, Japan, and Indonesia. But it is flatter than that of the US, which has emerged as the new epicentre of the global pandemic, with the most number of active cases and deaths at the moment.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was five days ago. At this trajectory, the number of cases could shoot up to 10,000 over the next four days. If the same trajectory continues beyond that period, India’s hospitals could get overwhelmed in the next few months. India’s death toll from covid-19 stands at 149, double what it was four days ago.
At 875, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Wednesday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
Tamil Nadu has the second most number of active cases (664), closely followed by Delhi (546). At 385 active cases, Telangana has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed closely by Uttar Pradesh (314). The top five states together account for 59 percent of the active cases nationally. Nationally, the active case count was 4714, as of yesterday evening.
These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Across the country, the extent of testing done by states and the number of cases that have been identified appear to be linked. This suggests that as other states ramp up testing, more cases could get reported from those states as well.
A study by public health researchers published on Monday suggests that Kerala, Goa, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Chandigarh have been more proactive in testing compared to other states. Kerala also seems to have managed to flatten its curve to some extent.
States such as Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, West Bengal, and Gujarat which have low testing rates and relatively high fatality rates may have missed several cases in their early stages because of low testing, the study published by the British Medical Journal blog suggests.
So far this week, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana have seen the highest spurt in cases. These three states account for 53 percent of all the fresh active cases this week.
The number of active cases have risen from 424 to 875 in Maharashtra, from 476 to 664 in Tamil Nadu, and from 230 to 385 in Telangana between Sunday and Wednesday evening.
The top ten districts account for 41 percent of confirmed cases in the country, data compiled by howindialives.com shows. And the top 50 districts account for roughly 70 percent of the cases.
So far, 343 districts have confirmed cases. Among these districts, Mumbai (692 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, followed by South Delhi (307). Indore (213) in Madhya pradesh, Hyderabad (162) in Telangana, Kasargod (159) in Kerala, Pune (159) in Maharashtra, Chennai (156) in Tamil Nadu, Jaipur (118) in Rajasthan, Bhopal (94) in Madhya Pradesh, and Thane (88) in Maharashtra are the other top hotspots in the country.
More than 1.5 million people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as several parts of the world, including India, have taken severe lockdown measures in a bid to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes covid-19.
Testing criteria in India were stringent so far and tests are being ramped up only now. It is likely that cases will continue to rise as testing expands, even if the lockdown has lowered the rate of transmission of the virus. Given the limited testing so far, it is too early to say whether India’s current trajectory will sustain, rise, or flatten in the coming days.
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