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Mint Covid Tracker: India’s coronavirus tally likely to surpass China’s count by Friday

People stand in queues to buy liquor outside a wine store during a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of new coronavirus in New Delhi,  (AP)Premium
People stand in queues to buy liquor outside a wine store during a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of new coronavirus in New Delhi, (AP)

Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Thane and Pune have accounted for half of all new cases in the country over the past two days. Mumbai’s tally has surpassed the 15,000 mark now.

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose nearly 10 percent over the past two days to 78,003, data from the morning update of the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is lower than the rate of increase in the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 12 percent to 70,756.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 16 percent (between Monday morning and Thursday morning). This is a slower rate of increase compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases had risen by 19 percent.

After tapering last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has picked up this month, with new infections rising faster than several Asian peers and deaths rising faster than in most other badly-hit countries.

India’s case count has now roughly doubled in the last eleven days. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise compared to the trend in early-April but have picked up pace over the past couple of weeks. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of Thursday morning was 2,549, roughly double what it was eleven days ago.

At the rate of compounded daily growth in this eleven-day period, the number of cases could rise to 100,000 by next Tuesday, two days after the current phase of the lockdown ends. The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

At 19,400, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Next on the list is Tamil Nadu with 6,987 active cases, followed by Gujarat, with 5,139 patients still under treatment. Delhi is fourth on the list with 5,034 active cases and Madhya Pradesh with 1,937. The top five states together account for 78 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 93 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 49,219 as of Thursday morning. The numbers are yet to peak and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days as testing gets ramped up across states.

Souce: MoHFW
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Souce: MoHFW

Over the past seven days, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and West Bengal have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 79 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Maharashtra. These three states account for 51 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days. Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are the only two states in the top ten where the active case count has reduced in this period. Active cases have risen much slower in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh compared to previous weeks.

Among top ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in West Bengal (9%), Gujarat (6.1%), and Madhya Pradesh (5.6%). India’s case fatality rate continues to hover around 3.2%. Among all states, the case fatality rates are lowest in Odisha (0.6%), Kerala (0.7%), and Tamil Nadu (0.7%).

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Thane, and Pune districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 56 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Indore, Kolkata, and Aurangabad.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW
Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA


So far, 551 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (15,699 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (6,645) in Gujarat. Chennai (5,268) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (3,301) in Maharashtra, and Thane (3,065) in Maharashtra are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 49 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Indore (2,107) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,328) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (1,153) in West Bengal, Surat (967) in Gujarat, and Jodhpur (944) in Rajasthan are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 58 percent of all the confirmed cases nationally. District-wise data for Delhi are unavailable and hence not part of this list.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 4.3 million even as some badly hit countries begin to relax lockdown measures after over a month.

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