BackMint Covid Tracker: Kerala, Andhra Pradesh see biggest daily surge in coronavirus cases
India’s coronavirus curve has steepened, with confirmed cases now doubling in five days
PremiumThe number of confirmed covid-19 cases in India went up by 35 percent over the past two days to 1397, the latest data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last night shows. This is a faster increase compared to the previous two days, when the case count rose 23 percent to 1071.
India’s trajectory is now flatter than that of the US, which is emerging as the new global epicentre of covid-19. Yet, it continues to be steeper than that of Singapore or Japan, which have managed to flatten their coronavirus curves through a combination of focused surveillance, screening, and the effective use of masks to contain the pandemic.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was five days ago. At this trajectory, the number of cases could shoot up to 10,000 over the next 16 days, and India’s hospitals could get overwhelmed by the end of May.
Given the volatility in India’s daily data over the past few days, it is too early to say whether the current trajectory will sustain, rise, or flatten in the coming days. It is worth noting that the US had a flatter trajectory compared to China till recently but as testing expanded, cases spiked up, with the US now overtaking China as the country with the most confirmed cases of covid-19.
At 214, Kerala leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the latest health ministry update. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases. Maharashtra has the second most number of active cases (168), followed by Delhi (89). At 87 active cases, Uttar Pradesh has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed closely by Telangana (77). The top five states together account for 51 percent of the active cases nationally.
In the north-east, two states have reported covid-19 cases so far: Manipur and Mizoram, with 1 confirmed case each in both states. Other north-eastern states have not reported any case so far. Jharkhand hasn’t reported any confirmed case either.
Over the past two days, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh have seen the biggest spikes in confirmed cases. These two states accounted for 40 percent of the rise in confirmed cases nationally over the past two days.
Kerala and Andhra Pradesh have also seen the biggest spikes in active cases since Monday night. The number of active cases rose from 182 to 214 in Kerala and from 22 to 39 in Andhra Pradesh.
So far, the provisional district wise details are available for 979 confirmed cases nationally. In this list, Mumbai (81 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, and also leads in the state of Maharashtra.
Kasargod district (78 cases) has reported the most number of cases in Kerala. Bengaluru (43 cases) has reported the most cases in Karnataka and Hyderabad district (27 cases) has reported the most cases in Telangana. Gautam Buddh Nagar district (22 cases) has reported the most number of cases in Uttar Pradesh.
More than eight hundred thousand people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as severe parts of the world, including India, have taken severe lockdown measures in a bid to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.
So far, covid-19 has claimed 42,332 deaths globally, of which Italy has accounted for the most deaths (12,428), followed by Spain (8,464). These countries have overtaken China --- where the virus originated --- in the number of deaths. China, which has seen 3,310 covid-19 deaths has been able to contain the spread of the disease, and has seen fewer deaths since March.
After Europe, the US has emerged as the new hotspot for covid-19. At 1,89,510 confirmed cases and 4,076 deaths so far, the US has surpassed China on both counts.
In India, there have been 35 deaths so far but this could change in the coming weeks. Testing criteria in India have been stringent so far and are gradually being relaxed even as new labs begin testing.
It is likely that cases will continue to mount over the coming days as testing expands, even if the lockdown has lowered the rate of transmission of the virus. The full impact of the lockdown can be gauged only after a few weeks. If the lockdown phase is used effectively to ramp up testing, identify clusters, and isolate infected patients, this could help India flatten the curve in the coming weeks. If not, cases could spike sharply once the lockdown ends.
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