Mint Covid Tracker: New infections, fatalities surging in Gujarat and West Bengal

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 11 percent over the past two days to 35,365, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slightly slower rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 12 percent to 31,787.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 31 percent (between Sunday evening and Friday evening). This is slower compared to the previous five days, when confirmed cases had risen by 42 percent.

Although India’s coronavirus trajectory has tapered over the past couple of weeks, it continues to be steeper compared to several Asian peers such as Japan and Indonesia. Compared to other affected countries such as Bangladesh and Singapore, the rise in infections is slower in India.

Compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries, including India, have been flatter so far. Yet, with new infections declining, the worst may be over for several European countries. In many Asian countries, new infections are still rising.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was twelve days ago. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of last evening was 1,152, roughly double what it was twelve days ago.

Still, at the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 50,000 in the next five days. If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity and strain an already overburdened health system.

At 8,266, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update on Friday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Gujarat has the second most number of active cases (3,568), followed by Delhi (2,362). At 2,100 active cases, Madhya Pradesh has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Rajasthan (1,690). The top five states together account for 72 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 91 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 25,148 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Over the past seven days, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Maharashtra have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 62 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in West Bengal, Rajasthan and Gujarat. These three states account for 35 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, New Delhi, and Jodhpur districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 54 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days include Kolkata, North West Delhi, and Pune.

So far, 481 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (7,804 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (3,293) in Gujarat. Indore (1,515) in Madhya Pradesh, Pune (1,388) in Maharashtra and New Delhi (1,339) are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 40 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Chennai (1082) in Tamil Nadu, Thane (943) in Maharashtra, Jaipur (914) in Rajasthan, Surat (644) in Gujarat, and Kolkata (617) in West Bengal are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 52 percent of the confirmed cases nationally.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

The coronavirus case count has crossed 3.3 million globally even as several parts of the country and the world remain under lockdown to contain the pandemic.