Monsoon Tracker: IMD says India will see less than average rainfall even as it sounds heatwave alarm

India is likely to receive 90% of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall during the Southwest monsoon season this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which released its second monsoon forecast on Friday.

The revised estimate marks a slight downgrade from the weather department's first forecast issued on 13 April, when it had projected monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long-period average.

The latest outlook indicates that while Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the season, several other regions of the country may experience below-normal precipitation.

Below-Normal Rainfall Expected Across Most Regions

Sharing details of the forecast, IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra outlined the expected rainfall pattern across different parts of the country.

"Quantitatively, the Southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country is likely to be 90% of the long period average... Below normal rainfall is most likely over the country... Southwest monsoon, seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India - roughly about 94 to 106% of the long-period average, and below normal over Central and South peninsula India, that is about less than 94% of the long-period average. And Northwest India, it is roughly about less than 92% of long-period average. The monsoon core zone, consisting mostly of rainfed agricultural areas in the country, is likely to be below normal - less than 94% of the long-period average..." he said.

According to the IMD, Central India and the southern peninsular region are expected to record rainfall below 94% of the long-period average, while Northwest India may receive less than 92% of average seasonal rainfall.

Particularly significant is the forecast for the country's monsoon core zone, which comprises largely rain-fed agricultural regions. The weather office has indicated that rainfall in these areas is also likely to remain below normal.

Northeast India May Be An Exception

While much of the country could witness lower-than-average rainfall, the IMD expects Northeast India to fare better during the monsoon season.

The weather department said seasonal rainfall over the region is most likely to remain within the normal range, estimated at roughly 94% to 106% of the long-period average.

The Southwest monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, water reservoirs and overall economy, with millions dependent on seasonal rainfall for farming activities.

Rain Brings Relief Across Delhi-NCR

Meanwhile, parts of Delhi-NCR witnessed a welcome change in weather after rain and thunderstorms swept across the region on Thursday evening, bringing relief from intense heat.

Following the showers, the IMD has forecast continued wet and windy conditions across Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurugram and Faridabad as pre-monsoon activity remains active over northern India.

Several areas of the national capital received heavy rainfall on Thursday, while neighbouring NCR cities experienced dust storms and strong winds. The weather conditions reduced visibility in some areas and affected traffic movement.

What Is Delhi's Weather Forecast?

According to the IMD, the current spell of rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across Delhi-NCR until 31 May.

• For Friday, the weather department has forecast:
• Cloudy skies through the day
• Intermittent rainfall in several parts of Delhi-NCR
• Thunderstorm activity during daytime and evening hours
• Strong gusty winds in isolated locations
• Cooler temperatures compared to the conditions witnessed earlier this week

The weather system is expected to keep temperatures lower than those recorded during the recent heatwave-like spell, offering temporary relief to residents across the region.

With the monsoon season approaching and pre-monsoon activity intensifying in northern India, weather officials will continue to closely monitor rainfall patterns and regional weather developments in the coming weeks.