In its latest forecast, the weather department has stated that a low pressure area has formed over south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area and East Central Arabian Sea at 3 am on Sunday. According to officials, it is very likely to intensify into a depression over Southeast and adjoining East-central Arabian Sea during the next two days.
“It is likely to move north-north westwards and subsequently intensify into a cyclonic storm around June 12," stated IMD, directing the coastal areas in Kerala, south-interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep to remain prepared for fairly heavy and widespread rainfall over the next few days.
Some parts in Kerala and coastal Karnataka could witness heavy rains 64.5 to 115 mm rainfall per day, which could exceed to 204 mm/day in certain places. “We are continuously monitoring the low pressure area and the next forecast would be issued on Monday," said an IMD official.
Sea conditions are likely to be very rough over the adjoining Arabian Sea from June 11 onwards and are likely to get very rough over Gujarat and Maharashtra coast on June 12 and 13. Officials have advised fishermen not to venture into the sea during the period.
Strong winds gusting upto 75 kmph are expected to prevail over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea from Tuesday onwards. Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka and south Maharashtra Coasts could witness the impact of the strong winds.
The southwest monsoon which provides over 75% rainfall to the entire country made a delayed onset over Kerala on June 8, against its normal date of June 1. The department had expected the monsoon to set in over Kerala on June 6, with an error margin of four days.
While the IMD has predicted the monsoon rainfall to be normal this season, there are apprehensions that the prevailing weak El nino conditions could impact the rainfall in the first two months. The ocean phenomenon characterized by warming of Pacific Ocean is associated with below normal rains in India and sometimes, leading to droughts.
The latest forecast also indicated that after its sluggish start, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to progress into remaining parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours. The monsoon current is also advancing into some parts of northeastern states during the same period.