BackMonsoon forecast for 2023: IMD vs Skymet. Check predictions
Monsoon forecast 2023: The southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala
PremiumMonsoon in India will arrive on June 4, according to predictions made by India Meteorological Department (IMD). Last year, the monsoon over Kerala occurred on May 29, two days after IMD's prediction on May 27.
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has expected that monsoon in Kerala will be delayed this year. Skymet weather agency stated that the onset of monsoon in Kerala is expected on 7 June with an error margin of (plus and minus three days).
"The onset of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the Indian mainland of Kerala is expected to be delayed by a week. The onset is expected on June 7 with an error margin of +/-3 days," Skymet tweeted.
The southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. It is an important indicator characterizing the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season.
Notably, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall in parts of Northeast, and East India in the next 5 days. This includes rainfall, hailstorm in Gangetic and Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura till 21 May.
Here's IMD forecast for 2023 monsoon onset over Kerala:
This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days.
India has predicted a normal monsoon this year, with showers likely to be 96% of a long-term average.
Light to moderate spells of rain coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds are very likely to occur in Delhi-NCR and adjoining areas on Wednesday.
Here's Skymet forecast for 2023 monsoon onset over Kerala:
The private forecasting agency Skymet Weather, however, said the monsoon is likely to reach Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days.
The onset will be delayed and the advancement slightly sluggish over peninsular India. Hot weather will continue deep into June this year over central and northern parts of the country. This may not augur well for Kharif sowing.
Skymet Weather said a powerful cyclone 'FABIEN' is moving over the south Indian Ocean in the equatorial latitudes. It added that the hurricane-strength weather system will take nearly one week to clear the area. This monster storm is restricting the cross-equatorial flow and the build-up of the monsoon stream.
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