Monsoon in India at risk? IMD warns of intensifying El Niño conditions, UN says planet 'on fire'
the India Meteorological Department predicting “below-normal rainfall” during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season (August–September) 2026.
The monsoon in India appears at risk, with the India Meteorological Department predicting "below-normal rainfall" during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season (August–September) 2026.
"During this period, below-normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country except some parts of the Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of northwest India and East and Northeast India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely," the weather department said in its latest forecast.
Is this the impact of El Niño?
The IMD mentioned in its August forecast that moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail over the "equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. "
The weather department said El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season.
"Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) also indicate a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions throughout the remaining period of Southwest Monsoon season," the IMD added.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has repeatedly warned that El Niño conditions are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
El Niño conditions refer to unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, cooler-than-normal temperatures usually mean La Niña conditions, when easterly winds become stronger, the WMO explains. These phenomena impact monsoons and drought conditions globally.
Impact on India
In India, El Niño is likely to bring below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA)) in August 2026.
The IMD has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. El Nino conditions were weak during June 2026 and intensified to moderate levels in July 2026. It's expected to further intensify “starting next month” and shape weather patterns across many parts of the world, the WMO said.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences told Parliament on July 30 that El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category.
"However, its exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories," the ministry said.
Meanwhile, the WMO said that as the August–October 2026 rainfall outlook exhibits patterns of a classic strong El Niño event, "drier-than-normal" conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent.
UN: 'Planet already on fire'
“El Niño is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Friday, July 31.
His statement came as the UN Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Friday that El Niño, a powerful climate pattern shaping global weather, will intensify starting next month.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep; it is inside the house and turning up the heat, and this is only a warm-up act,” Guterres said.
- IMD predicts 'below-normal rainfall' for India during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon 2026.
- El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen, influencing global temperature and rainfall patterns.
- UN warns El Niño is exacerbating extreme weather events, with severe impacts likely on the Indian subcontinent.
About the Author
Akriti Anand is a Deputy Chief Content Producer at LiveMint. She is a digital journalist with more than six years in the news industry.<br><br> In her current role, she covers both national and international politics, and also keeps a close watch on the latest trends in science and space exploration. <br><br> Akriti joined the LiveMint team in October 2023. Before this, she built a strong career at other major media houses. She worked as a senior sub-editor at India Today. Later, she moved to CNBCTV-18. There, she covered high-pressure topics like breaking news and major elections. She spent much of her time analysing Parliament bills and complex political debates. She is also a skilled editor who knows how to polish a story for a digital audience. <br><br> One of her career highlights happened at CNBCTV-18. She made her first television debut during the Chandrayaan-3 mission. She also provided special on-air coverage for the Karnataka Elections. <br><br> When she is not busy with breaking news, Akriti loves to write explainers and interview experts on a wide range of issues. She also enjoys making complex space missions easy for everyone to understand. <br><br> Her education helps her tackle these diverse subjects. She holds a BA in English Literature, a Postgraduate Diploma in Mass Communication, and a Master’s degree in Development Studies. She is currently expanding her knowledge in climate journalism.<br><br> Connect with Akriti here<br> LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199">https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199</a><br> Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/AkritiAnand7">https://x.com/AkritiAnand7</a><br> Email: akriti.anand@htdigital.in
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