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Monsoon likely to withdraw from entire country in next 4 days, predicts IMD. Full forecast

Of the 694 districts in the country, 45 per cent (311 districts in 16 states and union territories) recorded rainfall in ‘large excess’ and 14 per cent (96 districts in six states and UTs). (HT)Premium
Of the 694 districts in the country, 45 per cent (311 districts in 16 states and union territories) recorded rainfall in ‘large excess’ and 14 per cent (96 districts in six states and UTs). (HT)

  • IMD weather update: Of the 694 districts in the country, 45 per cent (311 districts in 16 states and union territories) recorded rainfall in ‘large excess’ and 14 per cent (96 districts in six states and UTs).

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India received 41 per cent more rainfall than normal from October 1-21 with Uttarakhand alone recording more than five times its normal precipitation, IMD data showed on Thursday.

Meanwhile, The Southwest monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through Lat. 27.0°N/Long. 92.0°E, Kohima, Silchar, Krishnanagar, Baripada, Malkangiri,

Nalgonda, Bagalkote, Vengurla, Lat. 16.0°N/Long. 65.0°E and Lat. 16.0°N/Long. 60.0°E. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from remaining parts of Northeast India; entire north Bay of Bengal; remaining parts of West Bengal; some parts of Central Bay of Bengal; remaining parts of Odisha; some parts of Andhra Pradesh; some more parts of Telangana; entire Goa; some more parts of Karnataka and some more parts of Central Arabian Sea around 23rd October.

With likely setting in of northeasterly winds in the lower tropospheric levels over Bay of Bengal and extreme south Peninsular India, the Southwest Monsoon

is likely to withdraw from entire country around 26th October, 2021. Simultaneously, the Northeast Monsoon rains are also likely to commence over Southeast

Peninsular India from around 26 October, 2021. A cyclonic circulation lies over Comorin area and a trough runs from the cyclonic circulation to Eastcentral Arabian sea off Karnataka coast in lower

tropospheric levels. Under their influence, light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Kerala & Mahe and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 22nd-26th and isolated very heavy rainfall over Tamilnadu, Puducherry and  Karaikal on 25th-26th and over Kerala & Mahe on 25th October, 2021.

A Western Disturbance seen as cyclonic circulation over East Afghanistan & neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft in mid-tropospheric levels roughly along Long. 63°E to the north of Lat. 32°N. An induced cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan & neighbourhood in lower

levels and under its influence, an induced Low Pressure Area very likely to form over the same region during next 24 hours. Under the influence of these systems and high moisture feeding from Arabian Sea over parts of northwest India in lower levels:

i) Light to moderate scattered to widespread rainfall with thunderstorm, gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) & lightning very likely over Jammu& Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh & Punjab during 22nd-24th with isolated heavy rainfall & hailstorm on 23rd October, 2021.

ii) Light to moderate isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm, gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) & lightning very likely over Uttarakhand, Haryana,

Chandigarh & Delhi and Rajasthan during 23rd-24th with hailstorm at isolated places over West Rajasthan on 23rd october, 2021.

22 October 

 Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

 Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Punjab; with lightning at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe.

 Squally weather (wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas. 

23 October

Heavy rainfall/snowfall very likely at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit[1]Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh and heavy rainfall over Punjab, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe. 

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning, hail and gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and West Rajasthan; with lightning and gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) at isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi; with lightning at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe. 

24 October 

Heavy rainfall very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe. 

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning and gusty wind (speed 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Punjab and West Rajasthan and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and Lakshadweep. 

25 October

Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Kerala and Mahe.  Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and Lakshadweep. 

26 October

Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe. 

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and Lakshadweep.

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