"Since, June 19, there has not been any progress of monsoon. It was due to impact mid-latitude westerly winds and unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of low pressure system over North Bay of Bengal," said IMD.
The weather department said that further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab is not likely till July 7.
"The phase of MJO is likely to gradually favour enhancement of convection and cross equatorial flow over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during Week 2 around July 7, 2021. Model forecasts show that easterly winds from Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels are not likely to be established over north-western plains of India before July 7," IMD stated.
On rainfall levels in India this monsoon, the IMD said cumulative rainfall during this year’s Southwest Monsoon season’s rainfall till June 30 has been above normal. So far, it has been about 10 per cent above Long Period Average (LPA) with actual rainfall during the same period being 18.29 cm against the normal level 16.69 cm.
IMD also predicted isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura over next 3 days. Isolated extremely rainfall is also very likely over Assam and Meghalaya on June 30 and July 1, over Bihar during June 30 and July 2, and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on June 30 and July 2-3, 2021.
Due to strengthening of moist easterly winds along the northern Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand from July 1, 2021, enhanced rainfall activity can be seen with isolated heavy falls very likely over East Uttar Pradesh during next five days, over Uttarakhand from July 1-4 and over West Uttar Pradesh on July 2, 2021. Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over Uttarakhand on July 2, 2021.
Strong surface winds, with speed reaching 20-30 kmph occasionally, over Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh on June 30 and July 1, 2021. Moderate to severe thunderstorm accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning very likely over Bihar and Jharkhand during next 24 hours. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors.
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