NDA don't have numbers in Lok Sabha to push women’s reservation, delimitation bills: Number game explained

Three bills to tweak the women's quota law were introduced in the Lok Sabha on Thursday, April 16. These are the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, the Delimitation Bill and the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill.

The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill seeks to amend six articles, including the one that expands the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 850, and removes the provision that mandates delimitation after each census.

The Bills, which the Opposition condemned as a "trickery" and "political demonetisation," were introduced after a 40-minute debate on Thursday. After the fiery debate, the Opposition pressed for the division of votes to introduce the Constitutional (131st Amendment) Bill.

The Bill was later introduced with 251 members supporting it and 185 members voting against the introduction.

But, the main question is: Will these bills be passed in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, keeping in view the Opposition's strong protests against them? Here's how the numbers stack up in Parliament.

Lok Sabha

The current effective strength of the Lok Sabha stands at 540. To pass the three bills, the government needs to get a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. This means that all members are present during the voting; at least 360 MPs must vote in favour of a bill to get it passed in Parliament.

Now, here's how the NDA's and the Opposition's numbers look like:

1. NDA has 293 members

BJP: 240 MPs

TDP: 16

JDU: 12

LJP-RV: 5 MPs

JD-S: 2

Janasena: 2

RLD: 2

AJSU: 1

Apna Dal-S: 1

AGP: 1

HAMS-S: 1

NCP: 1

RLP: 1

SKM: 1

UPPL: 1

2. Opposition has 234 MPs

Congress: 99 MPs

Samajwadi Party: 37 MPs

Trinamool Congress: 28 MPs

DMK: 22 MPs

NCP-Pawar: 8

Shiv Sena-UBT: 9

RJD: 4

CPM: 4

AAP: 3

Muslim League: 3

JMM: 3

CPIL (ML)L: 2

National Conference: 2

NCK: 2

Kerala Congress: 1

MDMK: 1

RSP: 1

BAP: 1

ASP-Kanshiram: 1

Akali Dal: 1

AIMIM: 1

Independents: 7

How many 'Ayes' and 'Noes' for the three bills?

As many as 360 MPs must vote in favour of the bill, but the government (293) does not have the absolute numbers to get the bill passed in the Lok Sabha. The NDA falls short of the 67 votes needed for the one-third majority. Meanwhile, more than 230 Opposition MPs have said they will oppose the bills.

Besides, seven Independent MPs and seven MPs who belong to parties such as the YSRCP, AIMIM and Shiromani Akali Dal, are yet to openly support the bills.

Earlier in the day, the Bills were introduced after the Opposition pressed for a division of votes to introduce the Constitutional (131st Amendment) Bill. As many as 251 members supported it and 185 members voted against the introduction of the bill.

There are some scenarios under which the bill can be passed in the Lok Sabha:

1. The bills, including the Constitutional Amendment Bill, could get approval from the Lok Sabha if at least two main opposition parties from amongst the Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress or DMK would have to abstain from voting.

2. If there is cross-party backing, meaning some of the Opposition or the independent members, cross-vote in favour of the NDA and the to pass the bill.

Rajya Sabha

In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has 141 members in its favour, which is 58 per cent of the upper house, and the Opposition has 83 MPs in its favour.

While the BJP has 107 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, the Congress has 28, TMC 13, AAP 10 and DMK 8. Parties such as the BRS, YSRCP, BJD, and BSP and independents have 20 MPs in the upper house, and their votes may help swing the decision.

According to PTI, for the Constitution amendment bill to get through in the upper house, the NDA needs the support of 163 MPs to be present and voting, which is a two-thirds majority of the house.

(With inputs from PTI)