OPEN APP
Home >News >India >No significant fall in covid cases in July, experts warn about third wave

No significant fall in covid cases in July, experts warn about third wave

In the context of India’s ongoing resurgence of covid-19 with the second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020, there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. (Bloomberg)Premium
In the context of India’s ongoing resurgence of covid-19 with the second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020, there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. (Bloomberg)

  • India has reported 42,015 daily new cases in the last 24 hours
  • While vaccination is also running at a steady pace with close to cumulative 42 crores doses administered in the country, there has been no immediate effect of vaccination on the curve of the pandemic in the country.

India is not seeing any significant reduction in its covid-19 cases for last one months. Public health experts have cautioned that cases remaining constant for this much time send a warning signal of a third wave.

Over 400 million Indians continue to remain vulnerable to covid-19 as two third of the general population was found to have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during fourth round of the national serological survey conducted by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Showing that majority of the Indian population has been exposed to the virus in last two months, over 67.6% population was found to have antibodies against SARS CoV2 virus that causes covid-19 during the survey.

India has reported 42,015 daily new cases in the last 24 hours. India’s Active Caseload today stands at 4,07,170 and active cases now constitute 1.30% of the country's total Positive Cases. Weekly Positivity Rate is currently at 2.09%, the union health ministry said.

If the daily positivity rate of cases is considered from July 1st the numbers haven’t changed much.

On 1st July the positivity was 2.48% and on Daily Positivity rate stands at 2.27% on Wednesday. The covid-19 testing also remained the same. At least 1880026 tests were done on July 1st and 1852140 were done on Wednesday.

“People should be prepared for a third wave however, the government is adopting the strategy of test, treat and vaccinate. The government has also warned that the country should be prepared for the third wave," Dr V K Paul member health NITI Aayog said adding that some parts of the country are still having second wave.

Public health experts have said that numbers are stable but not coming down. “The last few weeks have seen a very gradual reduction of the covid-19 cases in Mumbai. Unfortunately, we are still having admissions and even deaths. This is worrisome and should be a signal of an upcoming third wave," Dr Behram Pardiwala, Internal Medicine, Wockhardt Hospital, Mumbai Central.

While vaccination is also running at a steady pace with close to cumulative 42 crores doses administered in the country, there has been no immediate effect of vaccination on the curve of the pandemic in the country. “Third wave will largely depend on the variant we are fighting. While the 67% antibodies that have come out of 4th Sero Survey, may delay the third wave to some extent, it may not prevent it. To prevent the third wave mass vaccination is the only way out as that will ensure the virus is not mutating into more dangerous forms as it did before the second wave," said Himanshu Sikka, Lead- Health, Nutrition and WASH from IPE Global, an international development health consultancy.

“Everyone needs to realise that partly vaccinated population gives the virus headroom to mutate quickly and take more resilient forms. And that slow vaccination can lead to vaccines becoming ineffective in medium to long term," he said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on last week expressed concern over rising coronavirus cases in some states, forewarning that the country saw similar trends before the start of the second wave.

Modi had virtually interacted with chief ministers of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, Maharashtra and Kerala to discuss covid-19 related situation, as during the last week 80% cases as well as 84% covid-19 deaths were reported from these states. The Prime Minister had cautioned that similar trends were seen in January-February before the second wave. “That’s why, in the states where cases are rising, we have to take proactive measures to prevent the possibility of the third wave, Modi said.

In the context of India’s ongoing resurgence of covid-19 with the second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020, there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system.

Dr Balram Bhargava, director general, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said that using mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, the ICMR examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur.

“There are four potential mechanisms for a third wave which are waning immunity that restores previously exposed individuals to a susceptible state, emergence of a new viral variant that is capable of escaping immunity to previously circulating strains, emergence of a new viral variant that is more transmissible than the previously circulating strains, and release of lockdowns prematurely may cause fresh opportunities for transmission," said Bharghava.

Subscribe to Mint Newsletters
* Enter a valid email
* Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.

Never miss a story! Stay connected and informed with Mint. Download our App Now!!

Close
×
Edit Profile
My ReadsRedeem a Gift CardLogout