New Delhi: The northeast monsoon season is drawing to a close with rainfall decreasing over most parts of the south India, according to the latest forecast.

The three-month long northeast monsoon, starting October, is the chief rainfall season for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, Kerala and south-interior Karnataka, and contributes towards production of rabi crops. Tamil Nadu, which falls under the rain-shadow region during the southwest monsoon receives nearly 48% of its annual rainfall during October-December.

While there is still a week to go for the season to end, meteorologists suggest there is not likely to be any major monsoon activity, except for scattered rains and thunderstorm over parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka around October 25.

“So far, the rainfall has been excess in Karnataka (71%), Telangana (41%) and Kerala (28%), while it remains deficient to the tune of 7% in Andhra Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu also, it is surplus by a small percentage of 3%," said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist from Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.

Last year, the northeast monsoon had ended with deficit rains over all five sub-divisions of south India, except for Kerala, where rains were normal. The deficiency was over 60% for Rayalseema, which witnessed poor rains even during the southwest monsoon.

However, this year, the northeast monsoon arrived early with the retreat of the southwest monsoon on October 16 and remained quite active until mid-November. However, the rainfall activity began to decrease thereafter and most parts of the southern states remained dry during the second half.

“There have not been any significant weather systems in Bay of Bengal in December, so a revival of north-east monsoon is unlikely. On the other hand, the Arabian Sea has seen some unusually high activity this season, with high number of cyclonic disturbances," said Palawat.

Arabian Sea witnessed the most intense cyclone season ever, with not only the highest number of cyclones, but also the most intense ones. Normally, it sees 1.7 cyclonic disturbances annually, of which usually one develops into a cyclonic storm. However, this year as many as seven cyclonic disturbances formed in the Arabian Sea.

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