Post-Pahalgam belligerence will help the Pakistan Army rebuild its image in the country: Defence expert

Pahalgam terror attack: The tragic killings at Pahalgam have had one definite effect from Rawalpindi’s perspective: the increase in bilateral belligerence is certainly going to help the Pakistan Army rebuild its image among the people of the country, says a leading Pakistani defence expert.

“The heightened tension is likely to regain the army’s lost image as Pakistan’s saviour. It was losing popular support in the past couple of years, especially in Punjab, a province that matters the most to the armed forces. This was due to the army chief’s treatment of Imran Khan and his party, and the military’s involvement in rigging the 2024 elections,” Ayesha Siddiqa, senior fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London, said.

So, for the Pakistani Army, it is a strategic gain, she told this reporter. "My reports from Pakistan suggest that the men who matter are very calm. They are enjoying putting pressure on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who they think is going to retaliate, for sure.”

'A proxy war on the LoC on the cards'

While an overall Indo-Pakistan conflagration may not be on the cards, a proxy war on the LoC is very much a possibility, Siddiqa said. "If India attacks, the Pakistanis are certainly going to retaliate,” she predicted.

According to Siddiqa, the Indian television media’s immature coverage following the slaying of 26 tourists in Pahalgam’s Baisaran, has certainly helped the cause of the Pakistani Army.

While it is difficult to say who was behind the killing without any evidence, the popular notion spread by the television channels is that the Pahalgam incident is India’s false flag operation to undermine Pakistan. "The narrative being developed through mainstream TV media and social media, is that Pakistan is under a deliberate attack,” Siddiqa said.

"To be sure, there is no mention of the jihadis, the LeT or the Jaishe-e-Mohammad, which are not just being kept in Pakistan but were being encouraged and provided improved infrastructure in the last couple of years. This was done with the intent of responding to what is believed to be India’s assistance to the insurgency in Balochistan and the tribal areas,” she said.

According to some people she spoke to, a Pakistani response was inevitable, especially after the killing of army personnel during the Jaffar Express hijacking in Balochistan. 

"Islamabad clearly holds India responsible for the attack, and any tit-for-tat response is aimed at building the image of both the army chief and the armed forces,’’ said Siddiqa, a former Pakistani civil servant who in 2007, published her critically acclaimed book, Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy.

The net result is that no one is speaking of Imran Khan or the situation in Balochistan, as the Pakistani Army is being seen as the country’s saviour.

Given that President Donald Trump does not particularly seem to care or know about the situation, ``Islamabad appears confident to benefit from the transactional nature of the new American administration, with whom it has been working to put relations back on some kind of track. It has worked diligently and consistently to develop counter-terrorism dialogue with Washington as a channel of communication,” Siddiqa said.

It does not help that there is a huge concern regarding India holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, a declaration that is considered an act of war. "It comes at a time when the Sindh province is up in arms over the army leadership and the political government planning six new canals that would hamper the flow of water to the southern province. It will be used to build a narrative that only the army can ensure national security,” says Siddiqa.