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Migrants arrived from Haryana by a special train board buses to reach to their native places during the ongoing nationwide COVID-19 lockdown, in Patna on Thursday. (ANI Photo)
Migrants arrived from Haryana by a special train board buses to reach to their native places during the ongoing nationwide COVID-19 lockdown, in Patna on Thursday. (ANI Photo)

Punjab’s corona curve bending, Haryana’s may be close to bending

Six out of ten confirmed cases and seven out of ten deaths are concentrated in India’s 15 largest cities

Earlier this week, India became the 11th country to report more than 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. India now accounts for 2.2 percent of the confirmed cases in the world.

It took India 14 days to reach the 100,000 mark since the day it touched 50,000 cases. This is a slower trajectory compared to most other countries which have crossed the 100,000 mark. The fastest was that of the United States, which took 3 days for the same jump. The slowest was that of Iran, which took 34 days for the same jump. The caveat here is that reporting and data quality vary across countries.

The number of deaths in India stand at 3435, as of Thursday morning. India’s fatality rate at 3.1%, is the 10th highest among the 18 countries with more than 50,000 cases. The fatality rate of France has been the highest (19.5%) and Saudi Arabia the lowest (0.5%) among this club of high-burden countries. India, so far accounts for 0.07% of covid-related deaths in the world. It is worth noting that new infections and deaths have peaked in many of the high-burden countries whereas they are still rising at a relatively fast clip in India.

As of Thursday morning, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat had the most number of active cases among all states. Among states with more than a thousand active cases, the doubling rates (based on the seven-day rolling averages) are the highest for Tamil Nadu (12 days), Maharashtra (14 days) and West Bengal (16 days). The doubling rates are slowest for Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh (30 days for both) among states with more than a thousand active cases.

The seven-day rolling averages help smooth volatility and daily reporting and are useful to gauge trends over time. Only active cases (excluding deaths and recoveries) have been considered for the state-level analysis.

Among all states, Bihar (7 days) and Odisha (8 days) have the highest doubling rates, based on the seven-day rolling average figures. Kerala, which was the first state to have flattened its curve, has seen a fresh batch of cases after state and international borders were opened up. Punjab has seen a sharp decline in new cases since the beginning of this month. Haryana has seen a dip over the same period.

Maharashtra (1,390 deaths) leads in the number of covid-related deaths so far, followed by Gujarat (749). Madhya Pradesh (267), West Bengal (253), Delhi (176) are other high-fatality states. The top five states account for 83 percent of deaths nationwide. Among the top ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in West Bengal (8.2%), Gujarat (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (4.7%).

India’s top metros continue to be hotbeds of the virus. Mumbai alone reported 24,118 confirmed cases and 841 deaths as of Wednesday evening. Even other major urban centres in Maharashtra such as Thane (4,900) and Pune (4,477) continue to be among the worst affected cities in the country.

Delhi with 11,008 confirmed cases, Ahmedabad with 9,409 cases, Chennai with 9,654 cases are the other major hotspots so far. The cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai, and Pune account for 54 percent of confirmed cases and 56 percent of deaths nationally.

The top fifteen cities together account for 63 percent of confirmed cases nationally. Seven out of ten covid-related deaths have occurred in these cities. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise case data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

In the past week, confirmed cases in Mumbai and Chennai doubled to 24,118 and 9654 respectively, the fastest increase among the top 15 cities by population. Bengaluru, Kanpur, and Lucknow have relatively fewer cases compared to other cities at the moment.

Among the top 15 cities, the case fatality rates are highest in Kolkata (9.6%), Ahmedabad (6.4%), and Pune (5%). The case fatality rates are lowest in Lucknow (0.3%), Chennai (0.7%), and Nagpur (1.4%).

With cities beginning to reopen, the distribution of cases and fatalities could change in the coming weeks.

The Mint Covid Tracker runs every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, visit https://www.livemint.com/topic/mint-covid-tracker

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