Several parts of the country are witnessing rainfall, frequent thunder and dust storms and below-normal maximum temperatures, an unusual phenomenon in the month of May, indicating the arrival of monsoon. However, as per experts, this unusual phenomenon will not impact the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, which is likely to arrive early in the last week of May, according to a report by the Hindustan Times (HT).
The monsoon is anticipated to arrive in Kerala on May 27, earlier than the usual date of June 1. However, it is difficult to predict the amount of rainfall the state will receive.
“As forecast by us we are expecting an early onset of monsoon over Bay of Bengal and over Kerala around May 27 but onset cannot be linked to quantum of rain. After onset, how much rainfall will be received needs to be seen and monitored,” Mohapatra informed.
On Monday, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an orange alert for six districts in Kerala, including Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts, as heavy rains lashed various parts of the state. A yellow alert has been issued for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam and Palakkad.
The formation of a heat low in Northwest India is one of the important factors for a normal monsoon in India. This forms a low-pressure trough that draws moist air from the monsoon trough. Without this, the monsoon could be insufficient. Currently, there is no formation of a heat low.
“Due to frequent western disturbances and moisture incursion, we are seeing intermittent thunderstorm activity and above normal rainfall. During May, temperatures have largely been below normal or normal over most parts of the country except Rajasthan where a heat wave is being recorded in some areas,” M Mohapatra, director general IMD told HT.
“During the last week of May we are expecting heat wave area to expand covering Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh,” Mohapatra said.
Notably, the absence or a weak heat low will result in a poor monsoon.
According to the IMD, the monsoon rainfall from June to September is expected to be “above normal” at 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%.
“It appears that as forecast by IMD, the onset of monsoon will happen much earlier than normal. I do not see the temperatures in May impacting the onset. We cannot say anything about the quantum of rain right away,” M Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences told HT.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the Southwest Monsoon advanced towards some parts of the south Arabian Sea, the Maldives and the Comorin area; the South Bay of Bengal, some more parts of the central Bay of Bengal and the Northeast Bay of Bengal.
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