Home > News > India > Rajasthan, Telangana may be close to bending corona curves even as cases spike in West Bengal, Bihar

India crossed two bleak milestones earlier this week. The coronavirus tally crossed the 30,000 mark and covid-related deaths crossed the 1,000 mark.

In Asia, only China and Iran have seen more than 30,000 cases so far. It took China 12 days to reach the 30,000 mark from the day the 1,000th case was recorded. Iran took 25 days for the same jump. In India’s case, it has taken 31 days from the 1,000th case to reach the 30,000 mark.

India took 48 days to reach 1,000 deaths since the first death. China had taken 30 days to reach 1,000 deaths since the first death. Iran took 28 days. The major epicentres of the pandemic, including Italy, the UK, and the US, took 21, 23, and 26 days, respectively, to reach 1,000 deaths from the day the first death was recorded.

Compared to several European countries, the US, and Asian hotspots, such as China and Iran, India’s trajectory has been slower. However, compared to several other Asian countries, India’s trajectory continues to be faster.

An analysis of the seven-day rolling averages of cases shows that the rate at which cases are doubling in the country have slowed since early-April to 10 days now. However, this is still faster than that of Indonesia and Japan, where cases are doubling in 13 days. In neighbouring Pakistan, cases are doubling in 10 days and in Bangladesh the doubling rate is faster at six days.

An analysis of the seven-day rolling averages for states shows that Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Delhi continue to see a rapid growth in the number of cases, with a large number of active cases. However, Bihar has the highest doubling rate, with the seven-day rolling average of cases doubling in three days. Gujarat (7 days) and West Bengal (7 days) are other states where cases are doubling faster than the national average.

The seven-day rolling averages help smooth volatility and daily reporting, and are useful to gauge trends over time. Only active cases (excluding deaths and recoveries) have been considered for the state-level analysis. Among states with more than 1,000 active cases, the doubling rates (based on the seven-day rolling averages) are the slowest for Andhra Pradesh (12 days), Rajasthan (11 days), and Madhya Pradesh (11 days).

Among all states, Kerala and Tamil Nadu appear to have flattened their curves the most. Rajasthan and Telangana may be close to bending their corona curves, the analysis suggests.

However, Rajasthan continues to witness rising fatalities on account of covid-19 even as fatalities slowed down in Telangana. Delhi, which appeared close to bending its curve last week, has seen a renewed spike in infections.

So far, the extent of testing has been uneven across states. The state-wise distribution could change significantly as states ramp up testing and ease mobility restrictions in the coming days. Among cities, Mumbai in Maharashtra had the most number of cases, with nearly 6,636 patients as on Wednesday evening. Neighbouring Thane had 882.

Delhi follows Mumbai in the list of most affected cities nationally with 3,027 cases. Mumbai and Delhi together account for 29% of the confirmed cases nationally. These two cities account for 27% of deaths so far.

Ahmedabad in Gujarat with 2,815 cases, Indore in Madhya Pradesh with 1,476 cases, and Pune in Maharashtra with 1,287 cases are the other major hotspots so far. The top five cities together account for 46% of confirmed cases and 55% of deaths nationally. The top 10 cities together account for 59% of confirmed cases and 65% of deaths nationally. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise case data compiled by howindialives.com.

Over the past week, confirmed cases in Kanpur rose nearly two-and-a-half times to 205, the fastest increase among the top 15 cities by population. Kolkata also saw a major jump in cases in the seven days till Wednesday, with cases more than doubling to 674.

Among India’s big cities, Nagpur, Bengaluru and Lucknow have relatively fewer cases at the moment, compared to others.

sriharsha.d@livemint.com

The Mint Covid Tracker will run every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, Click here

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