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SBI research sees GDP contracting over 40% for June quarter

SBI Research estimates that GSDP loss due to COVID-19 for states stands at  ₹30.3 lakh crore, which is 13.5% of total GSDP. (Mint)Premium
SBI Research estimates that GSDP loss due to COVID-19 for states stands at 30.3 lakh crore, which is 13.5% of total GSDP. (Mint)

  • SBI Research forecasts that the coronavirus cases in India will peak in the last week of June
  • The research also predicts a a 'smart recovery' of 7.1% for the second quarter, basis the sustainability of the demand

Indian economy is going to face a 'humongous loss' in the June quarter and Gross Domestic Product(GDP) contraction can exceed over 40% during the quarter, SBI Research said in note released Tuesday. The research also predicts a a 'smart recovery' of 7.1% for the second quarter, basis the sustainability of the demand.

The research note sets provisional estimate for Q4 FY20 around 1.2% as the economic activity in the last 7 days of March month was completely suspended due to nation-wide lockdown from

SBI Research estimates that GSDP loss due to COVID-19 for states stands at 30.3 lakh crore, which is 13.5% of total GSDP.

SBI Research further forecasts that the coronavirus cases in India will peak in the last week of June. It says, "based on the current 7-days moving average of new cases witnessed in India, we believe that new cases are likely to peak somewhere anytime in the last week of June, beginning June 20."

The research note further predicts that the new cases are expected to witness steep fall till the beginning of August after which it is expected to flatten by mid-September.

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