Based on other countries experience we believe India might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be at 77.8%, says the SBI report
The second wave of coronavirus in India could peak around mid-May, economists of India's largest bank, SBI, said in a report. India is facing an unprecedented second covid wave where new cases and coronavirus-related deaths have been hitting new highs. wave. India today reported a record rise of 379,257 in new coronavirus cases and 3,645 deaths over the last 24 hours, with active cases rising to 30.84 lakh.
"However, there is a good news amidst all the gloom. It may be noted that India’s recovery rate that was at 97% at the beginning of the second wave, is now at 82.5%. This 14.5% reduction in recovery rate has happened over a period of 69 days. Based on other countries experience we believe India might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be at 77.8%," the report said.
"Given that every 1% reduction in recovery rate takes around 4.5 days, it translates into around 20 days from now. Also our estimate shows that every 1% reduction in recovery rate increases active cases by 1.85 lakhs. Thus we believe peak of second wave would come around mid-May with active cases reaching around 36 lakhs at that point of time."
SBI economists believe that with with increasing production capacity of vaccines and new vaccines getting imported, "a total of 1048 million doses can be given in India by October 21 in which 15% of the population can be fully vaccinated and 63% can get their first shot"
"Experience of other countries show infections stabilise after 15% of population receive second dose," they say.
The report also said that SBI business activity Index which has been declining in April’21 has now dipped to a new low of 75.7, the level it had attained in August 2020 and now a clear 24.3% down from-pre pandemic level. "This indicates the disruption caused by increased lockdowns/ restrictions imposed in various states is now having a meaningful impact on economic activity," it said.
With several states now going for partial lockdowns, the economists have revised India's FY22 growth projection at 10.4% real GDP and 14.2% nominal GDP.
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