Southwest monsoon hits Kerala three days behind schedule

The southwest monsoon, crucial for kharif sowing, arrived in Kerala on Thursday, three days after its normal onset date of 1 June. However, weather officials said the delay remains within the normal range.

"The delay by three days is within the standard deviation," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, India Meteorological Department (IMD).

According to the IMD’s earlier forecast, the monsoon onset over Kerala was expected around 26 May, with a margin error of four days, extending the likely window till 30 May.

In its latest update, the IMD said the southwest monsoon has advanced into the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep region, Kerala and Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the remaining Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal, and additional areas of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal.

A timely and favourable monsoon is important for India, as it helps revive rural demand, lift consumption, and support overall economic growth. India remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.

Good rainfall supports the agricultural economy and boosts rural demand. Currently, only around 55% of India’s net sown area has irrigation facilities, leaving the remaining farmland dependent on monsoon rains. Therefore, any shortfall in rainfall assumes significance as it could raise irrigation costs for farmers.

In its updated long-range forecast released on 29 May, the IMD said rainfall during the June–September monsoon season is likely to be 90% of the long-period average (LPA), flagging an emerging El Niño pattern, down from 92% projected in April. Rainfall is considered normal when it falls in the 96–104% range.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone (MCZ), consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal (below 94% of LPA).

“This is positive news for farmers as it will support the pace of kharif sowing. In my view, a below-normal monsoon is not a major concern. If rainfall is well distributed across regions, the impact is likely to be limited,” said Sudhir Panwar, farm policy expert and former member of Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.

The broader implications could, however, extend beyond agriculture. In its 8 April report, the Reserve Bank of India warned that below-normal rainfall and possible El Niño conditions pose upside risks to inflation. "Persistently elevated energy prices due to the West Asia conflict and possible El Niño conditions (which could have a negative impact on southwest monsoon) pose upside risks to inflation," said RBI in its report.

Separately, the Federation of All India Farmer Associations (FAIFA), in a report released on Thursday, said El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons, moisture deficits and heightened risks during the kharif season.

Against this backdrop, the industry body said agricultural planning should increasingly focus on preparedness, adaptation and risk management rather than reactive responses to climate-related disruptions.

The report advocated a dual ecological and technological transition, including restoring soil health, reducing excessive dependence on chemical inputs, improving water-use efficiency, promoting crop diversification and encouraging nature-based farming practices.

"By combining traditional ecological wisdom, scientific innovation, digital technologies and farmer-centric policies, India has the opportunity to build an agricultural system that is productive, sustainable and prepared for future climate shocks.”said P.S. Murali Babu, president, FAIFA.

Meanwhile, IMD said there has been widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala during past two days. The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of the central Arabian Sea, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, additional areas of Karnataka, the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, the southwest Bay of Bengal, and parts of the northeastern states over the next two to three days.

According to Crisil Intelligence, below-normal rainfall during July-September is expected to create productivity risks across major kharif crops, as this period coincides with critical yield-forming stages. While July is primarily associated with crop establishment and vegetative growth, August and September coincide with flowering, fruit setting, pod development and boll formation stages, making crops increasingly vulnerable to moisture stress as the season progresses.

"Consequently, yield realisation across key crop categories is likely to come under pressure, underscoring the need for close monitoring, adaptive crop management and timely measures for mitigation. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will remain the key determinant of final crop outcomes,' said Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence.