Surge in summer sowing offers more cushion against food inflation

A sharp rise in the sowing of summer crops has raised hopes of easing food inflation, offering a timely reprieve for policymakers focused on maintaining price stability.

As of 18 April, total summer crop acreage rose 15% year-on-year to 6.88 million hectares, compared to 5.97 million hectares during the same period last year, according to agriculture ministry data.

While summer crops contribute a relatively small share to India’s total farm output, gains in acreage—especially in fast-growing crops like pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals—can help cushion short-term supply shocks and lay the groundwork for a robust kharif season.

The average area sown during the summer is around 7.1 million hectares, though this varies each year based on rainfall and climatic conditions. While the kharif and rabi seasons remain the most productive, summer crops serve a supplementary role. Summer output is not reported separately; it is included in the kharif production estimates released by the agriculture ministry.

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This uptick in sowing comes at a critical time. India’s retail inflation eased to a six-year low in March, driven by a sharp moderation in food prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose by 3.34% annually in March, lower than the 3.61% registered in February and 4.85% reported in the year-ago period. Food inflation—a more volatile and politically sensitive component—slowed to 2.69% in March from 3.75% in February and a peak of 8.52% in March 2024.

While this decline is largely due to a bumper rabi harvest now reaching markets, higher summer output could further stabilize prices in the months ahead.

“Record production of wheat and paddy—key crops of the rabi and kharif seasons—has significantly reduced pressure on the government,” said B.B. Singh, agriculture expert and former additional director general (seeds) at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). “With these (likely) bumper harvests, food prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.”

Summer sowing gains

India follows three cropping seasons—rabi, kharif, and summer (or Zaid). The summer window, which runs from March to June, sits between the main rabi harvest and the onset of kharif sowing. These crops typically grow on irrigated land and have shorter growing cycles, making acreage trends a useful early signal of agricultural momentum.

As of mid-April, sowing across key summer crops has exceeded the five-year average (2018–19 to 2022-23) and shown strong year-on-year growth.

Paddy sowing stood at 3.15 million hectares, up from 2.76 million hectares a year ago, and higher than the five-year average of 3.08 million hectares.

Sowing of coarse cereals, or shree anna, reached 1.15 million hectares—up 4% from the normal area of 1.10 million hectares, and 16% higher than the same period last year.

Pulses—another key component in food inflation trends—recorded a robust 23% year-on-year rise in sown area, expanding to 1.65 million hectares from 1.34 million hectares. Green gram alone accounted for 1.36 million hectares, the data showed.

Oilseeds sowing also rose 4.4% to 916,000 hectares from 785,000 hectares last year, registering a 14% increase over the five-year average of 786,000 hectares.

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Among individual crops, farmers have planted more green gram (moong), black gram (urad), groundnut, sunflower, and sesame. Acreage under bajra and ragi, however, has declined slightly.

Monsoon optimism

The trend is expected to carry over into the upcoming kharif season, with sowing likely to pick up pace after mid-May. 

In Haryana, paddy transplantation is expected to begin after mid-May. In Punjab, the process has been advanced to 1 June—marking a significant shift from last year, when it began on 11 June. This is the earliest the state has started paddy transplantation since 2009, a senior state agriculture official told Mint.

Favourable weather projections have further lifted farmer sentiment. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an above-normal monsoon for 2025, improving prospects for a strong kharif harvest.

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A good monsoon will accelerate agricultural output growth and benefit the broader economy, NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand told Mint earlier this month. “A good monsoon will help to keep food inflation below 4%.”