Tamil Nadu and Haryana have bent corona curves, Delhi close to bending2 min read . Updated: 24 Apr 2020, 01:27 AM IST
Mumbai and Delhi together account for more than a fourth of confirmed coronavirus cases and covid-19 related deaths in the country
When India went under a countrywide lockdown on 25 March, confirmed coronavirus cases were doubling every four days. The rate went up in early-April to three days, but has since slowed down to nine.
Compared to Singapore and Bangladesh, which now have a doubling rate of five days, India has a slower trajectory. However, India’s rate is still fast compared to Indonesia, which has a doubling rate of 11 days.
An analysis of the seven-day rolling averages of case counts across affected countries suggests that India’s trajectory remains steeper than several others in the continent.
Compared to many other countries, India has seen faster growth in new infections and fatalities in the seven days till Wednesday, the Mint Covid Tracker shows.
An analysis of the seven-day rolling averages for states shows that Maharashtra and Gujarat are emerging as the top hotspots.
However, Tamil Nadu and Haryana appear to be bending their curves. The seven-day rolling averages help smooth volatility and daily reporting and are useful to gauge trends over time.
Only active virus cases (those excluding deaths and recoveries) have been considered for the state-level analysis.
Active cases in Maharashtra have been doubling in nine days, using the rolling average analysis. Meanwhile in Gujarat, the cases are doubling in six days.
In contrast, the doubling rate has slowed to 19 days in Tamil Nadu and 17 days in Haryana.
The doubling rate in Delhi stands at 14 days and it may be quite close to bending its curve as well.
Currently, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Delhi have the highest number of active cases among all states. A week ago, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh were among the top four in terms of active cases, but they no longer feature among the top four.
The extent of testing has been uneven across various states. As testing gets ramped up in the coming days, the number of reported cases and the state-wise distribution is most likely to change significantly.
Among cities, Mumbai in Maharashtra had the most number of cases, with nearly 3,746 patients on Wednesday evening. Neighbouring Thane had 477. Pune, too, has emerged as a major hotspot in the state and the country, with 945 cases.
Delhi follows Mumbai in the list of most affected cities nationally with 1,848 cases. The cities of Delhi and Mumbai together account for 26% of the confirmed cases nationally.
These two cities also account for 27% of deaths so far. Ahmedabad in Gujarat with 1,518 cases and Indore in Madhya Pradesh with 923 cases are the other major hotspots.
The top five cities together account for 42% of confirmed cases and 55% of deaths nationally. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise case data compiled by howindialives.com.
Over the past week, confirmed cases in Surat rose nearly fourfold to 415.
Jodhpur also saw a significant jump in cases in the seven days to Wednesday, with the figure more than doubling to 312.
Among India’s biggest cities, Kanpur, Nagpur, and Bengaluru have relatively fewer confirmed cases, compared to the others.
However, it is worth keeping in mind that the regional- and city-wise distribution of cases could change over the next few weeks as testing expands.
The Mint Covid Tracker will run every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, Click here