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Third wave of Covid likely to start if cases keep on rising for 14 more days, experts predict

Fueled by the Omicron variant, Mumbai has been witnessing sharp rise in Covid cases for the last couple of days (PTI)Premium
Fueled by the Omicron variant, Mumbai has been witnessing sharp rise in Covid cases for the last couple of days (PTI)

  • The rise was expected in presence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant, an expert said
  • If we start translating these numbers into a graph, it will look like the beginning of a new wave. But we should wait and watch the trend, he adds

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With Mumbai showing a sharp rise in the number of daily cases - is this the beginning of the third wave? Epidemiologists and health experts said that if the rise continues for another two weeks, then the next wave has begun, as reported by Hindustan Times. 

Fueled by the Omicron variant, the city has been witnessing sharp rise in Covid cases for the last couple of days. On Sunday, the city reported 922 new cases, 757 on Saturday 683 cases on Friday. 

“A sustained rise for another two weeks will make it clear if the city has started seeing a fresh wave," said epidemiologist and health systems expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya. “If you plot the numbers on a graph, a sustained rise will show an upward curve, which will be an indicator of a wave. At the moment, the city authorities should closely watch the trend," he said, Hindustan Times reported. 

“Every setting is likely to experience a different trend. For instance, while Mumbai and Delhi have recorded a spurt in cases over the past few days, the cumulative statistics from the country have not shown an upward trend," he further said. 

Speaking on the sudden rise, epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil, who is also a member of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation in India (NTAGI), the rise was expected in presence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant. 

“If we start translating these numbers into a graph, it will look like the beginning of a new wave. But we should wait and watch the trend," he said.

“Globally, the Omicron variant is replacing the Delta variant, but it is causing a mild disease and has not led to an increase in hospitalisations. Given the immunity that Indians have with the exposure to the virus as well the vaccination, it’s likely that the new wave may not be of any consequence," he added, Hindustan Times report said.

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