Three of the five states headed for assembly elections trail the rest of the country—by a distance—in covid vaccinations, at a time the Omicron variant rages. Only one-third of the population has got both vaccine doses in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Manipur, as against 46% for India. Moreover, the first-dose coverage is 56%, 58% and 43%, respectively, as against 65% for India, shows a Mint analysis.
Just two weeks ago, each of the five poll-bound states were reporting less than 50 new cases a day, but the daily count has risen 109 times in the past fortnight in Uttar Pradesh, 46 times in Punjab, 21 times in Goa, 20 times in Uttarakhand, and three times in Manipur. The third wave is spreading across India at a pace not seen even during the second wave.
When the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the schedule of elections on Saturday, it said it did so after consulting health experts and government officials and urged all five states to accelerate vaccination ahead of polling. UP will vote in seven phases between 10 February and 7 March; Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa on 14 February; and Manipur on 27 February and 3 March.
Last year, the poll body faced criticism after it decided to carry on with the eight-phase election schedule in West Bengal, even during the devastating second wave. What went wrong with West Bengal was that there was no ban on poll rallies until very late in the day, said S.Y. Quraishi, a former chief election commissioner.
“It’s wrong to suggest the (upcoming) polls could have been postponed,” Quraishi said in an interview after the schedule was announced. “The ECI has done the right thing. This was the only time window possible. The covid situation is serious, but polls were held in Bihar in 2020 at a worse time when we knew even less, yet we had very good elections with very good guidelines.”
This year, the ECI has banned election rallies at least until 15 January, laid down covid guidelines and urged more digital campaigning.
“We are in the third year of the pandemic, and no one can predict its course with precision. However, whatever we know about Omicron, important economic and social activities should definitely continue,” said physician-epidemiologist Chandrakant Lahariya, suggesting smaller rallies with strict covid protocol. “If we defer an activity in this pandemic there’s no point about which we can be sure…we just have to identify the right time amid the pandemic.”
Quraishi said banning rallies can help keep cases in check and create a level playing field. The UP assembly’s term expires only in May, unlike the other four states, which must conduct polls by mid-March. However, while delaying UP polls was legally possible, there’s great logic in the principle of clubbing multiple polls as it ensures results in one state don’t influence voting behaviour in others, Quraishi said.
A district-level analysis of vaccination data shows that the parts of UP that vote in the first phase on 10 February have a slightly better two-dose coverage (36%), while others fall between 31% and 34%. This gives the government more time to ramp up vaccinations.
Lahariya said each region going to polls should plan for the coming weeks based on expert advice, the local epidemic trend and the vaccine coverage.
However, he said, vaccines had a limited role in preventing the transmission of the virus. Although UP has low coverage, it has one of the highest seropositivity rates, or past exposure to infection, which could keep severity low even in the case of high transmission. “This is an opportunity for these states to prioritize vaccination,” Lahariya said. “They could conduct special drives to increase coverage, with at least one shot, since both might not be possible.”