BackUnlock 4.0 reflects India’s tenuous lives versus livelihood trade-off
As the covid-19 case count topped 3.5 million in India and deaths crossed the 65,000-mark on Saturday, the new guidelines are for opening up of more activities in areas outside containment zones
PremiumNEW DELHI: Unlock 4.0 has brought back the focus on lives versus livelihood debate, with India trying to fend off a devastating economic crisis, that threatens to push its migrant working population back into poverty.
Reflecting the trade-off, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government on Saturday allowed a host of activities such as social, cultural, religious and political congregations with a ceiling from 21 September, and commencing metro rail operations from 7 September in a graded manner.
As the covid-19 case count topped 3.5 million in India and deaths crossed the 65,000-mark on Saturday, the new guidelines are for opening up of more activities in areas outside containment zones, in sync with the government’s strategy to allow most economic activities to resume in phases.
It also made it evidently clear that, "State/UT governments shall not impose any local lockdown (state/ district / sub-division / city level), outside the containment zones, without prior consultation with the central government," thereby articulating its shift. A decentralised strategy was earlier adopted, in view of the disease spread been varied across the country.
This comes in the backdrop of Indians still wary of going out, five months into the pandemic, hinting at the long and difficult path to economic recovery. The issues assume importance given that, according to the finance ministry, the economic recovery will depend on how the pandemic behaves in the coming days, especially in industrialised states.
States such as Uttar Pradesh have mandated lockdown every weekend to limit the spread of coronavirus which has affected businesses. State police officials said the aim is to prevent the spread of the virus in rural areas and strict enforcement of lockdown to curb movement of persons.
"Majority of covid-19 cases are in the urban areas and we don’t want the disease to spread in rural areas. We take strict action against people who violate the rules under the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897…Weekend lockdown is being strictly enforced," said Akash Tomar, senior superintendent of police, Etawah, and added that authorities are ensuring that livelihoods are not hit during the exercise.
The lockdown, the world’s largest and strictest, was the focal point of India’s strategy to contain the virus that originated in Wuhan, China. It in turn hit supply chains, resulting in a disruption in economic activity and employment.
The central government has drawn flak from some quarters for its handling of the lockdown, particularly for overlooking the plight of migrant workers who have been the worst hit and form the bulwark of India’s informal or gig economy. Many believe that while the lockdown was necessary, it was unplanned and led to mass exodus from cities.
Experts say that the migrant worker population shall be cared for.
“The unlock intervention must be tempered based on emerging evidence. Labourers, especially migrant labourers need to be given livelihood and resumption of their jobs, with government contributing to lost salaries," said Sakthivel Selvaraj, director, health economics, financing and policy, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), a public private initiative in public health.
“Demand-side incentives must be put in place to kick-start the economy, favouring demand boosting initiatives among labourers, rural areas, etc," added Selvaraj.
The government has offered free foodgrains and an affordable rental housing scheme under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.
“Large cities which with agglomeration benefits are able to offer livelihood to natives as well as millions of migrants coming from far and wide in search of jobs," said Arup Mitra, a health economist and professor of economy at Delhi University.
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has estimated that the Indian economy will contract 4.5% this fiscal, while Goldman Sachs expects the June quarter to be the worst, with the gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking 45%. While Unlock 4.0 starts, the government will face fresh challenges in terms of migrants' livelihoods.
"Should the migrant population travel back to the cities, the preparation needs to be made in a tangible way to strengthen the functioning of the urban informal economy and the slum-living which would mean considerable overlaps among housing, employment and health interventions," Mitra said.
This comes at a time when the economic crisis that surfaced much before the pandemic has started to bite with rampant job losses and industry-wide lay-offs. The goods and services tax (GST) revenue shortfall has also forced the Centre to offer states borrowing options to tide over. This in turn has resulted in widespread criticism by the cash-strapped states who have alleged that the action is unconstitutional and goes against the spirit of the landmark reform agreed between the Centre and the states.
Some believe that India has already seen over five months of lockdown, and going ahead with it may not be a solution to curb the spread.
“As compared to an earlier stage, right now India may have a better prepared healthcare system. So opening up of mass transport system, even if it leads to some flare up in the number of cases, the current healthcare system may be able to cope up with it," NR Bhanumurthy, vice chancellor, Dr BR Ambedkar School of Economics University said.
In March, the union home ministry had restricted all public transport services—railways, metro and inter-state buses —across the country to contain coronavirus cases. While most of the mode of transport, including, airlines, trains, cabs, were gradually allowed to operate, metro rail continued to remain shut. Metro services will increase intra-city mobility in cities such as Kolkata, Delhi, Kochi, Mumbai.
“Further details on the metro functioning and its usage by the general public will be shared once the detailed SOP on metros is issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs in next few days," said Anuj Dayal, executive director at Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd, that registers a daily average of six million journeys on a week day.
However, international air travel remains restricted to the extent the home ministry has permitted. At present, domestic air travel at a limited capacity and international air travel with which India has struck bilateral arrangements called ‘air bubbles’ are taking place.
The fresh guidelines also tries to balance the need for education and personal guidance and the health safety. While the rules asks educational institutions to remain shut till 30 September, it opens a new window for senior school students to have some interaction with teachers and schools 21 September onwards.
“Nearly 77% of parents of school children are not in favour of opening schools till 31 December for regular classes. The fear of the pandemic has gone up due to an increasing number of positive cases the country is reporting. The lives of their children is taking a precedence over face to face education," said Sachin Taparia, managing director of LocalCircles, a community-media platform that also conducts surveys in school sector.
Shreya Nandi, Prashant K.Nanda, Gireesh Chandra Prasad, Neetu Chandra Sharma and Utpal Bhaskar contributed to the story.
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