Weather shocks hit India’s favourite mango crop; prices rise, may go up further

New Delhi: India’s favourite fruit is facing a problem – heatwaves and unseasonal rains have hit crops, potentially disrupting supplies.

This coupled with a prolonged dry spell and depleting water levels in key reservoirs, is expected to impact yields which could spell zooming prices in domestic markets. 

There's a silver lining… of sorts. Despite all this, mango exports are unlikely to be hit, according to trade analysts.

India is the world’s largest producer of mangoes, celebrated nationally as the king of fruits. But the flowering of mango trees has been impacted this year, and the fruit's size and weight is likely to be smaller too, depending on region.

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“Because of unseasonal rainfall during winter (December-January) in some parts of West Bengal, flowering was affected,” said Sandipan Biswas, a mango grower from Ichapur of North 24 Parganas in West Bengal who has 2 acres of mango orchards.

Biswas added, “This season, the crop is less. I am expecting the harvest from my orchard to be around 50 baskets (1 basket = 40 kg) against the typical 150-200 baskets. Prices are already up and may rise further on account of less produce this year.”

Size and weight

Kalachand Dutta, another grower from the same region, said that not only the quantity but also the size and weight of mangoes could be affected due to inadequate precipitation before the flowering season. 

“Weight of some varieties like Amrapali, Fazli, and Langra are about 200-250 gm each against their original of 450-500 gm. This is going to pinch our pocket this season as we will have to put more produce in the basket when we sell it to traders in the market.”

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Similarly, growers in Tamil Nadu will bear the brunt of a poor harvest in terms of margin as heatwaves have slashed the crop at least by a half.

“In Tamil Nadu, mango crop is poor because excess heat and less water availability for irrigation causing flower and fruit to drop. As a result, we lost more than 50-60% of the crop. Now the hot windy weather condition for the past 3-4 days is causing fruit drop rapidly,” said Prabhuram Rajagopal, who runs a nursery in Krishnagiri and is a member of the Tamil Nadu Mango Growers Federation. 

“Unless we get a remunerative price, we will not be able to make up for the loss. To make up for the loss, farmers must get ₹400-500 per kg,” Rajagopal expressed.

Better prices

Currently, prices of Bombai Siruli and Gopal Bhog varieties are quoted at ₹45 and ₹50 a kg compared with ₹20 and ₹25-28 per kg in the corresponding period last year. 

The best-quality Alphonso is priced at around ₹200 per kg, the B-grade at ₹60-70 and C-grade ₹40-50 a kg. 

However, this season’s Himsagar (Alphonso) and Langra from certain parts of West Bengal are yet to hit the market. Harvesting starts in a week and wholesale prices may be more than double last year's prices, spot traders said.

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In contrast, some traders from Chennai said that the price variation this year is minimal.

“There has been minimal price variation this year. The real price difference happens outside of markets like Koyembedu (Chennai’s primary wholesale market) when the fruit goes to big grocery chains and stores. They increase the prices drastically, sometimes doubling or even tripling it, and make a killing. 

Price by variety

For example, we typically get and sell Alphonso at ₹30-60 per kg, depending on quality and other factors. But go to the chains and stores, and the rates can go as high as ₹200 or ₹300 per kg. This changes from variety to variety,” said Ravi Murugan, a mango-wholesaler based in Chennai’s Thyagaraya Nagar or T. Nagar.

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“In terms of sales, we primarily source mangoes from the Bengaluru/Karnataka region. They can ensure a continuous supply by injecting chemicals into the fruit and speeding up their ripening, which wasn’t the case 5-6 years ago.

As far as production is concerned, it is mixed based on variety and region. The lack of rainfall has affected our production here in Tamil Nadu though. A lot of the traditional belts where we used to grow mangos, like around Salem and Srirangam, are doing very badly. Mainly this year, due to the chemical-based production in Karnataka, we (southern region) should be okay. However, next year could be different as the heatwave will have an impact then, but no one can say for sure,” Murugan added.

High demand

"The people I spoke to in Karnataka about the Alphonso variety told me that the heat has helped production in certain areas, unlike last year, when excessive rainfall damaged crops. Same for Malgova, usually we get it from Salem, but the demand is high, and the season is not quite there; so, we are procuring that as well from Karnataka. 

But other varieties are not doing well at all. The Rasalu variety has totally vanished from the markets, I haven’t seen it anywhere. We are expecting a below-to-average season for the Raspuri and Rumani varieties. I am not sure about the Banginapalli variety this year. We typically get a good supply from Andhra Pradesh,” said Murugan.

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Despite the poor harvest, trade analysts do not expect India’s mango exports to suffer as it has shipment commitments and exporters draw higher prices from the international market.

“Total destruction of a particular variety of the crop is a different issue. If it is affected and the yield falls, it may push up domestic prices and may reduce the margin of exporters but I don’t see any impact of less produce on exports in terms of volume and value,” said Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), acknowledging that the domestic mango crop is less this year.

Already shipped

“Most of the mangoes have already been shipped because they have done well in advance. The export starts from March onwards. Even if the crop is hit in some parts of the country, exports get priority because of the kind of return Indian mango exporters get from the international market, it is much higher than domestic prices. Exporters have international commitments as well and they don’t like to lose market share. Since the margin between domestic and international prices are more, I think exporters will be able to absorb it.”

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India, the leading mango producer in the world and the home of about 1,000 varieties, produces an estimated nearly 25 million tonnes of mangos annually and famous for its Alphonso variety. Mango, the king of fruit, is cultivated in an area of 2.4 million hectares in India and the major growing states are Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat and Telangana. India in the first half of FY24 (April-August exported 27,330.02 tonnes of mangoes worth $47.98 million against the entire FY23’s 22,963.78 tonnes worth $48.53 million, according to data from the commerce ministry.

As per the data from FIEO, India’s mango exports in the entire 2023-24 financial year were $151.40 million followed by the US ($51.67 million), Germany ($30.06 million) and Burkina Faso ($23.34 million).

Queries sent to the horticulture department of the agriculture ministry and the consumer affairs department remained unanswered at press time.