Weather update: IMD forecasts below-normal rain in August-September; Orange alert in Himachal, Kerala

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season, covering the August to September period, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) monthly forecast released on Friday.

The weather agency said rainfall across the country during these two months is expected to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating weaker-than-usual monsoon activity in the latter half of the season.

Based on historical rainfall data collected between 1971 and 2020, the Long Period Average for the August-September period stands at 422.8 mm across the country.

The LPA is a benchmark used by meteorologists to assess rainfall performance. It represents the average amount of rainfall received over a specific region during a particular month or season over a long-term period, generally spanning 30 to 50 years. This standard helps compare current rainfall patterns with historical averages and determine whether rainfall is above normal, normal, or below normal.

IMD issues orange alert for Himachal

Persistent monsoon showers across Himachal Pradesh have prompted the IMD to issue an orange alert for the state until 31 July, warning of continued heavy rainfall and the possibility of weather-related disruptions.

In Mandi district, officials said the Beas River is flowing within normal levels despite the ongoing rains, and no incidents of flash floods or other rain-induced disasters have been reported so far. The district remained under cloudy skies, while several areas received scattered rainfall on Thursday.

The Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) has increased the discharge of water from the Pandoh Dam after inflows into the reservoir rose. An additional 12,000 cusecs of water has been released, taking the total outflow into the Beas River to nearly 36,000 cusecs.

As a precaution, authorities have urged residents, tourists and workers to avoid venturing near the riverbanks, warning that water levels could rise further if inflows continue to increase. Officials also said sirens would be sounded before any further release of water from the dam to alert people in vulnerable areas.

The ongoing monsoon has caused widespread disruption across several parts of the country, with heavy rainfall triggering floods and landslides in states including Assam, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Kerala.

Orange alert sounded in 11 Kerala districts

The IMD on Friday issued an orange alert for 11 districts in Kerala, warning of very heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms as intense monsoon conditions continue across the state.

According to the IMD, the orange alert for Friday covers Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts.

For 1 August, the weather agency has extended the orange alert to Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts.

The IMD said an orange alert signifies the likelihood of very heavy rainfall, with precipitation ranging between 115.6 mm and 204.4 mm within a 24-hour period at isolated locations.

Meanwhile, a yellow alert has been issued for Thrissur, Palakkad and Malappuram districts on Friday.

On 1 August, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and Kottayam districts will remain under a yellow alert, while on 2 August, the warning will extend to Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts.

The IMD said a yellow alert indicates the possibility of heavy rainfall ranging between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm within 24 hours at isolated places.

In view of the forecast, authorities declared a holiday for educational institutions in several districts on Friday as a precautionary measure to ensure public safety amid the adverse weather conditions.