Home >News >India >West Bengal active cases decline, Gujarat curve stable

Earlier this week, the Indian government said the country had one of the lowest death rates in the world due to covid-19. At one covid-related fatality per 100,000 population , India’s death rate is one-sixth the global average. But this figure can change fast, because India continues to have one of the worst growth rates in death count among high-fatality countries.

With 14,894 deaths as of Thursday morning, the toll remains the eighth highest in the world, but has risen 22% over the past seven days. Last week, the seven-day spike was 51%, but it was mainly due to Maharashtra’s decision to attribute hundreds of earlier deaths to covid-19.

Reporting and testing practices of states continue to impact the data this week, too. Telangana reported the biggest jump in active cases (143%) over the past seven days after the state was forced to ramp up testing following criticism. Total confirmed cases in Delhi, too, surged after increasing testing, and the capital now has the highest case-load (70,390) among cities.

With 106,159 new coronavirus cases in the last seven days, India has seen the third biggest rise among all countries in this period, after the United States and Brazil. The jump of 2,657 deaths is the fourth biggest, after the US, Brazil and Mexico.

In percentage terms, the number of cases in India has risen 29% to reach 473,105. The country’s fatality rate is 3.1%, but the recovery rate is improving fast, and was 57% as of Thursday morning. The number of active cases—patients still under treatment—is 186,514.

Globally, the coronavirus case count has crossed 9.4 million, with over 480,000 deaths, and more than 4.7 million (50%) recoveries. India has 5% of all cases and around 3% of the deaths.

Like the death toll, India’s case load is rising at a fast pace. Among all countries with more than 5,000 fatalities, India has the worst weekly growth rate in cases, and at its current pace, could cross the 600,000 mark by next Friday.

Maharashtra, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu continue to lead in the number of active cases, and together have 63% of them. Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat are the states with the most deaths, with a 73% share.

But Gujarat’s death count has been rising slowly over the past few weeks, and the growth rate in the past seven days was just 11%—the slowest among the 10 states with most active cases. Deaths are increasing the fastest in Karnataka (61% weekly jump), Tamil Nadu (50%) and Haryana (45%).

Maharashtra, whose deaths had surged 64% last week due to reconciliation of data, saw its growth rate in fatalities return to past levels. This week, the toll in the worst-hit state in India rose 19%.

The number of active cases in India has risen 16% over the past week. Among the states with the highest case-load, Telangana has reported the biggest surge in active cases, while the number has declined in Delhi and West Bengal due to a surge in recoveries. Gujarat, where active cases have been declining recently, saw a negligible rise this week. Active cases have risen in Uttar Pradesh (6,375), and the state is now fourth on the list of worst-hit states. The recent surge in Haryana, however, seemed to subside with just a 3% increase in active cases.

The case fatality rates are the highest in Gujarat (6%), Maharashtra (4.7%), and Madhya Pradesh (4.3%).

Large cities continue to be disproportionately affected by the coronavirus. Delhi has 70,390 confirmed cases and 2,365 deaths as per latest data. Mumbai (69,524 cases), Chennai (54,146), Ahmedabad (20,188), and Pune (17,445) are the other major hotspots.

These five cities account for 50% of confirmed cases and 62% of deaths nationally. The top 15 cities in terms of population together account for 57% of confirmed cases and 70% of covid-related deaths in India. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

In the past week, deaths have risen in Bengaluru, Chennai, Surat and Delhi by 80%, 48%, 25% and 24% respectively—the fastest increase among the metros with at least 50 deaths. Among the top 15 cities, the case fatality rates are the highest in Ahmedabad (6.9%), followed by Kolkata (5.9%), and Mumbai (5.6%), and the lowest in Hyderabad (0.3%), Nagpur (1%), and Lucknow (1.2%).

The Mint Covid Tracker runs every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, visit https://www.livemint.com/topic/mint-covid-tracker

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