West Bengal Exit Poll: How Mamata Banerjee’s TMC proved every projection wrong in 2021

Exit polls are projections, not predictions. The 2021 West Bengal election proved that more decisively than almost any state election in recent Indian history.

Every major polling agency underestimated Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) by a significant margin. Most overestimated the BJP. The gap between projection and reality was, in several seats, enormous.

What Exit Polls Said

Nine agencies released exit poll projections for 292 of the 294 seats in the West Bengal assembly. That year, the remaining two constituencies, Samserganj and Jangipur, had their elections postponed and were held on 30 September, with results declared separately.

Most gave TMC a clear lead, but none came close to the actual result. Times Now-C Voter projected 158 seats for TMC and 115 for BJP.

ABP-C Voter gave TMC 152-164 seats and BJP 109-121. ETG-Research projected TMC at 164-174 and BJP at 105-115. POLLSTRAT gave TMC 142-152 seats against the BJP's 125-135.

Two agencies stood out for being particularly off the mark. India Today-Axis My India projected a near-tie, giving TMC 130-156 and BJP 134-160.

India News-Jan Ki Baat went furthest in BJP's favour, projecting 162-185 seats, enough for a majority. News24-Today's Chanakya was the most bullish on TMC, projecting 180 seats for the TMC against the BJP's 108.

What Actually Happened

TMC won 213 of 292 seats, a landslide. BJP won just 77. An independent candidate won one seat. Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party won one seat. The Left-INC-ISF alliance, the Jot, was wiped out entirely.

Not a single exit poll came close to TMC's actual tally. Every agency undershot TMC by several seats. The most dramatic miss was India News-Jan Ki Baat, which projected the BJP winning up to 185 seats. BJP won 77.

Why Exit Polls Fail

Exit polls rely on voters accurately reporting how they voted immediately after casting their ballot. In West Bengal, that assumption carries particular risk. Voters in politically-sensitive areas may not reveal their true vote.

Fear of consequences plays a big part in distorting the data. The 2021 results suggested that TMC's ground-level support was significantly undercounted across all models.

Bengal Elections Exit Polls 2026

Exit poll results for the current round of elections will be released after 6:30 pm today. The Election Commission of India banned exit polls under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. The ban came into effect from 7 am on 9 April. It remains in force until 6:30 pm on 29 April.

The West Bengal Election 2026 Phase 2 is underway. Till 9 AM, the voter percentage stood at 18.39%. Purba Bardhaman district reported the highest voter turnout at 20.86%, followed by Hooghly at 20.16%.

Meanwhile, TV channels, radio networks and cable operators have been banned from broadcasting any exit poll data during this period. Opinion polls and any content that could influence voter behaviour are also banned.

Violation of Section 126A carries imprisonment of up to two years, a fine, or both. Results from multiple polling agencies are expected to be released simultaneously after the ban lifts this evening.

The 2021 West Bengal result is a timely reminder. Exit polls are tools, not verdicts. As Mamata Banerjee proved last time, the only poll that truly matters is the one that actually happens.