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When will Covid third wave curve flatten in India? IISc-ISC scientists predict

A health worker interacts with Covid-19 patients inside the Shehnai Banquet Hall, a COVID-19 care facility, during the third wave of the coronavirus, in New Delhi. (PTI) — A health worker interacts with Covid-19 patients inside the Shehnai Banquet Hall, a COVID-19 care facility, during the third wave of the coronavirus, in New Delhi. **(PTI)**

1 min read . Updated: 12 Jan 2022, 03:31 PM IST Livemint

The IISc and ISI scientists also said that the present curve will be flattened by March or April. The peak might witness more than eight lakh daily cases, the latest projection said

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The researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) claim that the current spike in Covid-19 cases across the country will begin to decline next month, though it will vary from state to state.

The IISc and ISI scientists also said that the present curve will be flattened by March or April. The peak might witness more than eight lakh daily cases, the latest projection said.

The latest projections take into account the rising Covid-19 graph of India till 10 January and Omicron transmissibility rates in South Africa.

For this, the scientists have provided three scenarios -- 100% susceptible population, 60% susceptible population and 30% susceptible population.

Key takeaways from the latest projections:

- The country's estimated hospital requirement can go beyond 4 lakh per day in the worst-case scenario, if 100% population is susceptible to Covid-19 now.

- If we consider that 60% population is susceptible to the virus, the hospital requirement can go a little above 3 lakh per day.

- The requirement of ICU beds can go beyond 20,000 in the worst-case scenario. Or else, it will remain between 10,000 to 15,000.

- The third wave of Covid-19 will begin to decline in February and by 1 March, the curve will start to flatten. In April this year, the third wave will end in India. However, the exact timing might different from state to state.

Meanwhile, India added 1,94,720 new Covid-19 infections taking the total tally of cases to 3,60,70,510 which includes 4,868 cases of the Omicron variant, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Wednesday.

The active cases have increased to 9,55,319, the highest in 211 days, while the death toll has climbed to 4,84,655 with 442 fresh fatalities, the data updated at 8 am stated.

Of the total 4,868 cases of the Omicron variant, 1,805 people have recovered or migrated so far.

Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 1,281 Covid-19cases followed by Rajasthan at 645,Delhi 546, Karnataka 479 and Kerala 350.