When will Covid third wave hit India and will it be milder than previous two? IIT scientist weighs in

With Omicron, the new variant of SARS-CoV2, the third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak by February with cases likely to be reaching up to 1-1.5 lakh a day in the country, but it will be milder than the second wave, Manindra Agarwal, IIT scientist involved in the mathematical projection of trajectory of Covid-19, said.

Two more people have tested positive for the Omicron variant of Covid-19 in Maharashtra, taking to total tally in state and country to 11 and 23 respectively.

The country had detected 17 cases of the Omicron variant on Sunday – nine persons in Rajasthan capital Jaipur, seven in Maharashtra's Pune district and a fully vaccinated man who arrived in Delhi from Tanzania.

He said in the new forecast, the new Omicron variant has been factored in. “With the new variant, our current forecast is that the country could see the third wave by February but it will be milder than the second wave.

So far we have seen that the severity of Omicron is not like the one seen in the Delta variant,” Agarwal told PTI.

He, however, said a close eye is being kept on cases in South Africa where many cases of this variant have been recorded. Agarwal added that as of now South Africa has not seen a rise in hospitalisation.

He said a fresh set of data on the virus and hospitalisations would help in getting a more solid picture. “It looks like although the new variant has shown high transmissibility, its severity is not like the one seen in the Delta variant,” Agarwal said.

The first two Omicron cases in India were reported in Karnataka last Thursday, where a 66-year-old South African flyer and a 46-year-old Bengaluru doctor with no travel history had tested positive.

He said as observed during the spread of delta, a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce the peak value, he added.

The Department of Science and Technology (DST) backed Sutra-model had earlier said the third wave of coronavirus could hit the country by October if a new variant, more virulent and transmissible than the Delta, emerges.

However, till November end, there was no new variant. It had then revised its forecast to November.

On November 26, the World Health Organisation (WHO) named the Covid-19 virus variant detected in South Africa and some other countries as Omicron.

The WHO has also classified the Omicron variant as a 'Variant of Concern'.

Experts have expressed possibilities that owing to the genetic modification in the virus, it may possess some specific characteristics. While the transmissibility of infection seems to have increased because of this new variant, there is still not enough clarity on whether or not it will cause severe disease and whether it will evade immunity.

More information is expected in the next two weeks' time or so, it said. 

India has added several countries to the “at-risk" list from where travellers would need to follow additional measures on arrival in the country, including post-arrival testing for infection.

According to the Centre, the countries designated as "at-risk" include the UK, South Africa, Brazil, Botswana, China, Mauritius, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Singapore, Hong Kong and Israel.