When will monsoon hit Kerala? IMD shares an update

The India Meteorological Department has predicted that the southwest monsoon to hit Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days.

Livemint
First Published22 May 2024
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 31st May with a standard deviation of about 7 days.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 31st May with a standard deviation of about 7 days.

The onset of the 2024 Monsoon in Kerala will provide much-needed relief as most of India is experiencing scorching heat. This year, anticyclonic conditions and the El Niño effect have created intense heatwave conditions in several parts of eastern and southern India. People eagerly await monsoon 2024 for respite from the hot and humid weather. 

The India Meteorological Department on Wednesday predicted that a southwest monsoon will likely hit Kerala on May 31, with a model error of four days on either side. “Southwest Monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on 31st May with a model error of ±4 days,” the weather office said in its latest bulletin. 

“Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of South Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maldives, Comorin area, South Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea today on 22nd May 2024,” IMD said. 

It stated that conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the remaining parts of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andaman Sea and some parts of the east-central Bay of Bengal during the next two days.

The weather department utilizes various indicators to forecast the onset of the monsoon in India. These include minimum temperatures in north-west India, the peak of pre-monsoon rainfall over the south Peninsula, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, OLR over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, and upper tropospheric zonal wind over the equatorial northeast Indian Ocean.

North India on heatwave alert

The weather forecasting agency warned on Wednesday about an impending severe heatwave across several states in North India, including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh. This warning follows a scorching May 21, when maximum temperatures exceeded 45 degrees Celsius in these regions.

The IMD indicated that heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are expected in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh until May 25. Additionally, Jammu, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and parts of Madhya Pradesh will experience heatwave conditions until May 25, while Maharashtra is forecasted to face similar conditions until May 24. 

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