When will Omicron-led third wave peak in Delhi, Mumbai? Here's what Sutra model predicts
The peak value for Delhi is between 35-70K cases/day (7-day average). Also, the peak is around 15 January
As Omicron cases continue to surge in India, a study reveals the third wave could hit the peak by February with infection load likely to be reaching up to 1-1.5 lakh a day. The projection of Department of Science and Technology (DST) backed Sutra model also suggested that the current COVID wave will peak in Delhi and Mumbai in and around 15 January.
Third wave appears manageable so far
Speaking about the new variant, Agarwal told PTI, “It looks like although the new variant has shown high transmissibility, its severity is not like the one seen in the Delta variant."
However, he further opined that, overall, this wave appears manageable due to low hospitalization rates. Of course, things could change in next couple of weeks. Also, there may be localized shortages of beds. So proper care and planning is warranted.
Bed requirement could peak around 1.5L. This is a big jump from our earlier projections based on SA data. As observed, Indian trajectory is very different from SA. With time, we will be able to make projections more precise, he added
He said as observed during the spread of delta, a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce the peak value.
India on Friday reported over 1 lakh fresh coronavirus infections, the highest in 214 days, Mumbai logged over 20,000 cases, and the national capital recorded over 17,000 cases. Meanwhile, the tally of coronavirus variant Omicron has breached the 3,000 mark today. Maharashtra and Delhi are touted to be the worst hit.
Sutra model had earlier predicted that the third wave of coronavirus could hit the country by October if a new variant, more virulent and transmissible than the Delta, emerges.
(With inputs from agencies)
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